Japan's 2026 defence white paper calls China its greatest strategic challenge and frames rearmament as economic prosperity
Japan's cabinet adopted its annual defence review on Tuesday, identifying China as the country's greatest strategic challenge and warning that a crisis similar to Russia's invasion of Ukraine could erupt in East Asia.
Japan releases 2026 Defence White Paper
Japan's cabinet adopted the 598-page annual Defence White Paper on Tuesday, 4 August 2026, framing the country's largest military expansion since World War Two as both a security necessity and an economic opportunity. Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi wrote in the preface that Japan must strengthen its forces with "a sense of urgency and crisis stronger than ever before." The document identifies China as Japan's greatest strategic challenge and warns that deepening military cooperation among China, Russia, and North Korea is creating a security environment as severe as any since 1945.
China's military activities and incidents
The white paper states that China is "intensifying its activities" around Japan and lists a series of incidents from 2025. In December, Chinese aircraft locked their radars on Japanese planes during carrier drills near southwestern Japan, an act the paper describes as possible preparation for firing. Two Chinese aircraft carriers were spotted near the southern islands in June, and in June and July, Chinese and Japanese aircraft came unusually close in two separate encounters. Japanese fighter jets scrambled 595 times in the 12 months to 31 March 2026, with 366 sorties against Chinese aircraft and 214 against Russian aircraft. That total is down from 704 the previous year and marks the lowest level since at least 2021.
- Two Chinese aircraft carriers sighted near Japan's southern islands
- Chinese and Japanese aircraft come unusually close in two separate incidents
- Chinese aircraft lock radars on Japanese planes during carrier drills near southwestern Japan
- Chinese and Russian bombers cross over Japan's southern islands for the first time
Russia and North Korea deepen ties
The report highlights joint Chinese and Russian bomber flights and naval exercises near Japan as a "show of force" and a serious concern for national security. In December 2025, Chinese and Russian bombers crossed over Japan's southern islands for the first time, prompting Tokyo to scramble fighters. The white paper also notes North Korea's "extremely rapid" progress in missile development, including hypersonic weapons, and warns that military cooperation with Russia could strengthen Pyongyang's capabilities in the medium to long term. It recalls that Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un stood together at a military parade in Beijing in September 2025.
Military buildup framed as economic prosperity
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government is presenting the defence expansion as a driver of economic growth. The white paper "stresses that investment in defence benefits the wider economy and people's lives," according to a Defence Ministry presentation. The cover, an anime-style image of a smiling family in a futuristic city, was designed to convey that message. Japan has already deployed long-range cruise missiles and missile launchers on its southwestern islands, acquired counter-strike capabilities, and in April lifted its self-imposed ban on arms exports. The government secured a record 122.3 trillion yen budget for the year to March 2027 and added a 3.1 trillion yen supplementary package. A rapid drone development programme selected four companies from 38 applicants, with navy testing to begin in early August. The white paper says adapting to "new ways of warfare," including drones and AI as seen in Ukraine and the Middle East, is essential.
- China
- 366 scrambles
- Russia
- 214 scrambles
China rejects the white paper
Beijing reacted sharply. Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Chen Xi said the document is "full of false narratives" and called it "a classic case of shifting blame and an excuse to relax its own military constraints."
We are strongly dissatisfied and firmly oppose such a stance.
He urged Tokyo to "stop misleading the Japanese people and the international community." The response follows months of strained ties after Takaichi said in November 2025 that Japan could deploy its Self-Defense Forces if a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatened Japan's survival, a remark Beijing labelled "egregious."
Alliances and the path ahead
Koizumi said he and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth had discussed the "unwavering" US-Japan alliance. Japan has also deepened security cooperation with the Philippines, Australia, and South Korea. The white paper notes that the Trump administration has not questioned the historic alliance. As Takaichi's government prepares a new national security strategy, military experts expect further spending increases aimed at deterring China from a conflict over Taiwan that could draw Japan into a prolonged war. How to fund that expansion without straining already stretched public finances remains unclear.
