Italy's 2027 budget plan puts impact at about 23.5 billion euros, with banks paying 5 billion

The headline numbers

Italy's draft budgetary plan (Dpb), sent overnight to the European Commission and Parliament, sketches the skeleton of the 2027 budget law. Several outlets put the package at about 23.5 billion euros for 2027. Adnkronos's first calculations give a different split: about 12.5 billion excluding energy and defence measures, equal to -0.54% of GDP, and about 26 billion once those measures are counted, since they are funded by EU flexibility worth another 13.5 billion. Il Messaggero puts the flexibility margins at about 14 billion. The government projects a deficit of 3.4% of GDP in 2027 and 3.2% in 2028, following a return below 3% that is expected this year.

Who pays for it

Banks and the wider financial sector are the largest source of funding outside EU flexibility. The plan sets their contribution at 0.21% of GDP, which Adnkronos puts at more than 4.6 billion euros and La Stampa at about 5 billion, the same figure Matteo Salvini has proposed. Il Messaggero reports banks paying 5 billion in 2027 and 10.5 billion over three years, and says the form of the bank and insurer contribution is still unclear. Gaming concessionaires would pay 700 million euros next year, a figure confirmed for 2028, for 1.9 billion over the period. Cuts to ministries account for 0.05% of GDP, or more than 1 billion euros, according to Adnkronos.

Spending priorities

Il Messaggero identifies social spending and household support as the largest outlay in the plan. Infrastructure receives almost 8 billion euros spread over three years, a share the paper links to demands from Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, while businesses get 3.4 billion next year for competitiveness and energy price support. Health receives about 2.4 billion in 2027 and another 3.8 billion across 2028 and 2029. Adnkronos gives somewhat different 2027 figures, 2.3 billion for health and about 2 billion for fiscal measures.

EU flexibility and the timetable

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni addressed Parliament ahead of an EU Council meeting and called for joint action.

Nobody, faced with a scenario of this kind, can respond effectively alone. The response must be coordinated and rapid.

According to AGI, the government wants to use energy funds from the EU flexibility, a budget deviation of 29 billion euros for 2027 and 2028 with half earmarked for defence, not only for investment but also for household aid. AGI links the timing to ongoing talks with Brussels and suggests cabinet approval could slip past the EU deadline of 20 October. Parliamentary sources point to Wednesday 28 October as a possible date. Il Messaggero notes the government is waiting on Ecofin decisions on flexibility, which are scheduled for 9 and 10 November.

The Irpef question

An extension of the 33% income tax rate up to 60,000 euros, a cut aimed at middle and upper-middle earners, has been frozen, AGI reports. The proposal had been one of the government's key measures for the budget. Rai frames the Irpef cut as an open question in its coverage of the plan. Confindustria, cited by AGI, says energy costs, inflation and interest rates are slowing the economy, and estimates growth of 0.6% in 2027 against an expected 1% in 2026.