Italian majority reunites around Meloni's preference-vote compromise as electoral reform reaches Lower House vote
The Lega has formally agreed to back a Fratelli d'Italia amendment introducing limited candidate preferences into the new electoral law, as the Lower House begins voting on 200 proposed changes. Forza Italia is also expected to support the measure, closing a rift that threatened the majority coalition.
The Italian government's electoral reform cleared a major hurdle on 14 July 2026 after the Lega and, barring a last-minute reversal, Forza Italia decided to support an amendment introducing limited candidate preferences.
The proposal, tabled by Fratelli d'Italia (FdI), Noi Moderati and Udc, replaces fully blocked lists with a 'Tuscan model' hybrid. In each multi-member constituency, parties would present a list of seven candidates, alternating by gender. The lead candidate remains blocked, but voters can mark up to three preferences from the other six names on the ballot.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had staked personal credibility on the issue. As La Stampa reported, she told allies that not securing a preference mechanism would cost her political face, particularly in front of Roberto Vannacci, the right-wing figure challenging her on the subject. The paper described her internal pitch as a 'win-win': the formula, Meloni argued, actually 'strengthens the power of leaders' by giving them even more levers to secure the election of loyalists.
Behind the compromise
For weeks the majority had been split. Forza Italia and the Lega pointedly refused to sign the amendment tabled at the 1 p.m. deadline on 13 July, prompting talk of a parliamentary 'challenge' to the prime minister.
I have always been elected both in Europe and in the Municipality of Milan with preferences, so as far as I'm concerned, it wouldn't be a problem.
The Lega's formal support came via a statement on the morning of 14 July. It cited the hybrid nature of the system, 'a mixed system that guarantees governability and the ability to give voice to the territories', as the decisive factor. Forza Italia, where Marina Berlusconi is reportedly highly critical of the amendment, headlined Il Messaggero's account with the party 'oriented to vote yes,' though the final decision would be taken at a noon group meeting. A Forza Italia deputy quoted by La Stampa summed up the mood: 'She bullied us,' referring to Meloni's negotiating tactics.
The chosen formula strengthens the power of the leaders, who have even more levers to lock in the election of their most loyal supporters.
The mechanics of the 'Stabilicum'
The broader electoral reform, dubbed 'Stabilicum', establishes a proportional system with a majority bonus. A coalition that wins at least 42% of the national vote receives an extra 70 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate, capped at a total of 220 and 113 seats respectively. If no one reaches the threshold, or if the two chambers produce divergent results, the system reverts to pure proportional representation.
The reform also requires every list or coalition to declare its candidate for prime minister at the time of registration, on pain of inadmissibility. Opposition parties have attacked this clause as a de facto 'premierato senza riforma' (prime ministerial system without a constitutional reform) and have tabled amendments to strike it down.
Parliamentary arithmetic and simulations
Angelo Rossi, the FdI point man on the dossier, estimated in Transatlantico conversations on 13 July that roughly a quarter of the next Parliament would be elected via preferences. Independent pollster YouTrend produced a scenario simulation: for a party polling at 20%, the hybrid preference system would affect 33.7% of its elected deputies in the Chamber and 27% in the Senate. The amendment's limited scope, a single blocked capolista followed by six names, means smaller parties such as Noi Moderati and Udc would continue to secure the vast majority of their seats through the blocked list mechanism, while larger formations like FdI and the Partito Democratico would cede part of the selection to voters.
What comes next
The Lower House began debating 200 amendments on 14 July, with 22 hours of scheduled discussion and the prospect of secret-ballot votes on contentious points. The centre-left opposition signalled it is considering obstructionist tactics and is ready to push for the secret vote.
It's like a game of chess. We wait to see their move and we will respond accordingly, with all the tools at our disposal.
If the Lega and Forza Italia both vote yes, the amendment stands a strong chance of passing, even accounting for possible rebels from within the majority ranks and the unknown loyalties of the centre-left. The text would then move to the Senate for final approval.
