Deloitte warns Ireland likely to miss 2030 housing target by 123,400 to 136,100 homes

Gap against the 2030 goal

Consulting firm Deloitte has warned that Ireland's government is likely to fall short of its goal of 300,000 new homes by 2030. The latest Crane Survey puts the shortfall at between 123,400 and 136,100 homes, a range produced by applying historical lapse rates to planning approvals. Deloitte expects around 40,000 homes to be completed this year, a 10% rise on 2025, yet the report says another 260,000 homes would still be needed within four years to reach the target. Reaching it would require completions to climb from roughly 36,000 last year to somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000 a year.

Low estimate123,400

High estimate136,100

Low estimate

123400 homes

High estimate

136100 homes

Data from the article text

Planning permissions and completions

Planning approvals are the report's central concern, with the firm saying they are not keeping pace. Some 182,130 homes have received planning permission over the past five years. Central Bank of Ireland data covering 2017 to 2020 indicate that 25% to 32% of such permissions lapse before construction begins. Deloitte also points to a delay between approval and the start of building, which means the coming period matters:

“The next 12-18 months are critical if Ireland is to avoid a substantial housing shortfall by 2030.”

Central Statistics Office figures published in October showed 10,154 homes completed from July to September, lifting the first nine months of the year to 26,833, an increase of 10.6%.

2025 (around)36,000

2026 (estimate)40,000

2025 (around)

36000 homes

2026 (estimate)

40000 homes

Data from the article text

Policy levers and the waiver deadline

Section 28 guidelines require local authorities to zone more land for residential building, which Deloitte calls a step toward closing the pipeline gap. The firm adds that rezoned land has to be realistically viable to deliver homes. Completions have also been boosted by the 2024 development levy waiver, which runs out this year. Developers must finish construction by 31 December 2026 to use it, so the report ties recent completion figures to that deadline. Kate English offered a more cautious reading of the figures:

“Even though our Crane Survey estimates that completions are on course to reach their highest volume since 2008, the planning permission pipeline is less promising.”

Student and hotel supply

Purpose-built student accommodation is also struggling to get built. The report counted 365 bedspaces completed across two schemes in 2025, down from almost 900 in 2024 and well under the 10-year annual average of 1,620. Only 380 bedspaces across two schemes are due in 2026. The hotel pipeline is larger, with 2,080 rooms expected to be added this year and 3,540 rooms under construction nationwide. Viability remains the main obstacle for student projects, according to the report.