Trump offers Iran 'last chance before decapitation' as oil drops; Tehran denies talks, demands Strait of Hormuz control

Trump's ultimatum and conflicting accounts

On Monday, President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he wants to give Iran "one last chance before decapitation," referring to a massive military strike he had called off over the weekend. He said the US is talking with Iran at its request, but acknowledged that conducting an attack on such a scale is "a huge step" he would rather avoid. Trump assessed that the war with Iran is "going very, very well" and that he is not under time pressure. Later on Truth Social, he accused Iranian leadership of being "incredibly two-faced," claiming they "beg" for meetings while publicly denying any negotiations. He insisted that the Strait of Hormuz is "completely controlled" by US forces and that Iran will remain under naval blockade until "an agreement or total capitulation." Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei flatly denied any talks with Washington, stating that Tehran is focused solely on discussions with Oman about a safe shipping route.

Iranian leadership is incredibly two-faced! They ask for a meeting - some would even say they 'beg' for it - talks begin, more are scheduled soon, and they openly and proudly claim they are not conducting any talks, that nothing is being discussed and that they are talking only with 'Oman'.

Iran's position and the Oman track

Baghaei said on Monday that "currently we are not conducting any negotiations with the US" and that talks with Muscat aim to agree on a route enabling safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had said on Sunday that those negotiations are in their "final phase." However, Baghaei cautioned that any deal with Oman would not be sufficient to reopen the strait as long as the US naval blockade and military aggression continue. He described the proposed route as "neither northern nor southern" and acceptable to both sides, but stressed that the strait will not return to its pre-war status. Iran demands a mechanism that fully respects its sovereign rights and prevents use of the waterway by states that committed aggression against it.

The situation will not change as long as aggression by the US continues.

The Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip

According to Politico, Iran has made control over the Strait of Hormuz the price for ending hostilities, including the principle of collecting fees for passage. A source told the outlet that this would "cement their control over the strait in diplomatic practice and customary law." Top US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have warned against any such concession, arguing it would set a dangerous precedent, complicate future sanctions, and weaken leverage over Iran's nuclear program. The White House is described as frustrated and with few good options, while poor communication among Iranian government factions further complicates negotiations.

Such a solution would create a dangerous precedent that opens the door to further actions of this kind.

Oil markets react

Brent crude fell nearly 5% on Monday to just over $83 a barrel after Trump's weekend announcement that he had halted a planned strike to give diplomacy a chance. The market interpreted the move as reduced risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Analysts cautioned that the relief may be short-lived; if talks fail or attacks on tankers resume, prices could spike again. The OPEC+ decision to increase output by about 188,000 barrels per day from September has been largely offset by disruptions from the Persian Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan.

How the conflict unfolded

The US-Israel war with Iran began on 28 February. A preliminary ceasefire was signed on 17 June, and for about three weeks the northern route of the Strait of Hormuz was safe for shipping. But before the 30-day restoration period ended, hostilities resumed in early July, and Iran again closed the strait. Since then, both sides have exchanged near-daily attacks. Trump has at least five times announced plans for powerful strikes on Iran only to call them off, according to CNN.