IMGW and RCB issue severe storm and heavy rain warnings across western Poland

Arrival of low Raphaela and the cold front

A pronounced weather transition will reach Poland on Friday evening as a trough associated with the low-pressure system Raphaela moves in from the North Sea. The low is driving an undulating cold front that will enter the country from the southwest before tracking progressively inland overnight. By Saturday morning, cloud cover and rainfall linked to the front will stretch across Poland from Silesia to Pomerania, introducing a cooler maritime polar air mass. Meteorologists expect the primary weather system to produce overnight rain totals between 15 and 25 liters per square meter, with localized accumulations reaching up to 30 liters per square meter.

On Friday evening, the frontal zone with rainfall and weak storms will reach Poland from the southwest. During the night, it will travel deeper into the country.

Storm alerts and severe weather parameters

The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management issued second-degree storm warnings for the Wielkopolskie and Dolnośląskie voivodeships, as well as parts of Lubuskie. These alerts, which become active on Friday evening and continue until Saturday morning, carry a 70% probability of severe storms accompanied by rainfall of 30 to 40 millimeters, with localized peaks reaching 50 millimeters. In addition to heavy precipitation, the storms will bring wind gusts reaching 75 kilometers per hour and isolated hail. First-degree thunderstorm and heavy rain warnings also cover Opolskie, parts of Śląskie and Łódzkie, as well as Pomorskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, and eastern portions of Warmińsko-Mazurskie, where wind gusts may reach 65 kilometers per hour. Prior to the storms, first-degree heat alerts were in effect across southwestern regions with daytime temperatures between 28 and 31 degrees Celsius.

Storms are forecast, accompanied locally by heavy rainfall from 30 to 40 mm, locally up to 50 mm, as well as wind gusts reaching speeds of up to 75 km/h. Hail may also appear locally.

Emergency response and government coordination

In response to the incoming storm front, Deputy Minister of the Interior and Administration Wiesław Leśniakiewicz convened a coordination briefing with emergency services. Leśniakiewicz placed response units on full alert and instructed regional voivodes to maintain continuous operational communication with the ministry. Simultaneously, the Government Centre for Security dispatched emergency text alerts to mobile phone users across Dolnośląskie, Wielkopolskie, and nine counties in Lubuskie, including Zielona Góra, Nowa Sól, Żary, and Żagań. The hydrological service also issued a first-degree warning for Lower Silesia regarding rapid water level rises along smaller rivers and localized urban flooding risks.

Weather: today and tomorrow intense rainfall and storms are forecast. Possible flooding. Do not approach swollen rivers. Follow the instructions of the emergency services.

Weekend outlook and subsequent conditions

As the front pushes eastward on Saturday, daytime precipitation will transition into scattered convective activity driven by unstable polar air. Cumulonimbus clouds will produce intermittent showers and thunderstorms across northern and central Poland, generating 10 to 20 liters per square meter in the northeast and 2 to 10 liters elsewhere. Saturday temperatures will range from 19 to 20 degrees Celsius in the northeast to 24 to 25 degrees in the west, with moderate westerly winds gusting between 40 and 50 kilometers per hour. Weather conditions will temporarily stabilize on Sunday with highs reaching 27 degrees Celsius in Lower Silesia, followed by renewed rainfall on Monday and Tuesday before clearer weather arrives midweek.