IMF raises Italy's 2026 growth forecast to 0.8% and sees 3.3% inflation
The IMF's World Economic Outlook, presented at its Bangkok meetings, raises Italy's 2026 growth forecast from 0.5% to 0.8% and puts 2027 growth at 0.6%, while warning that global resilience is under strain.
Italy's revised growth forecast
The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 growth forecast for Italy by 0.3 percentage points, from 0.5% in the July update to 0.8%, in its World Economic Outlook presented at the IMF meetings in Bangkok. The 2027 forecast rises to 0.6% from 0.5% in July. Italy's GDP grew 0.5% in 2025. The fund expects unemployment to fall to 5.6% in 2026 from 6.1% in 2025, before rising by 0.2 points to 5.8% in 2027. Even with the upward revision, Italy remains one of the slower-growing economies in Europe, and the outlook is weaker than the performance of Spain.
Inflation outlook
Italy's inflation is forecast at 3.3% on an annual average basis in 2026, above the euro area average of 3.1%, before easing to 2.8% in 2027, in line with the average of its European partners. Among the major euro area economies, only Spain is projected to face a higher 2026 figure, at 3.7%, falling to 2.7% in 2027. Germany is projected at 2.7% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, while France is seen at 2.4% and 2.2%. The immediate impact of the energy crisis caused by the war in the Middle East is strongest in the United States, where inflation is forecast at 3.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027. Global inflation is projected to rise to 4.7% this year, mainly because of higher commodity prices, before falling to 4.1% in 2027.
- Spain
- 3.7 %
- United States
- 3.6 %
- Italy
- 3.3 %
- Euro area
- 3.1 %
- Germany
- 2.7 %
- France
- 2.4 %
A two-speed global economy
Global growth is put at 3.1% for 2026, up from 3% in July, and at 3.4% for 2027, after 3.5% in 2025. The IMF says growth is being redistributed between countries according to their exposure to the war-driven energy supply shock and to demand linked to artificial intelligence. The United States is seen growing 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, supported by solid consumer spending, public spending, accommodating financial conditions and technology investment. The euro area is projected at 1.1% in 2026, up from 0.9% in July, and at 1.2% in 2027. Germany is seen at 1.3% in 2026, after 0.2% in 2025. China is set to slow from 4.5% to 4%, reflecting weak domestic consumption, struggling investment and an unresolved property crisis.
- China
- 4 %
- World
- 3.1 %
- United States
- 2.3 %
- Germany
- 1.3 %
- Euro area
- 1.1 %
- Italy
- 0.8 %
Risks and structural strain
Chief economist Silvana Tenreyro's introduction warns that the economy's resilience is under pressure and that risks are tilted to the downside. The fund says energy stocks are thinning and that further geopolitical shocks could again hit prices and supplies. High debt limits fiscal room for manoeuvre, and central banks are constrained because they must focus on price stability. The fund estimates that a stronger-than-expected expansion of AI could add 0.4% to US GDP and 0.6% to world GDP by 2029. The United States and China together accounted for more than 75% of net imports of AI-related computer hardware in 2025 and for 57% of newly built data centres since 2024. Taiwan and South Korea together represent 62% of net trade in AI-related computer hardware. Over the medium term, global output is seen expanding 3.2% a year in 2028-2031, below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%, and 32 economies generate 95% of global growth.
