US and Iran tentatively agree to end war and reopen Strait of Hormuz, but Israel-Lebanon conflict looms

Escalation and fragile truce

The war began on 28 February when Israel and the United States launched operations against Iran. On 9 June Washington said Tehran shot down a US helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz, triggering retaliatory strikes. A fragile ceasefire has since been under strain. Talks continued behind the scenes, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Donald Trump discussing efforts to end the conflict in a phone call on 13 June. Starmer welcomed progress and said Britain stood ready to support implementation of any peace agreement.

On the same day Trump said on social media that a deal with Iran would be signed on Sunday (14 June) and that the Strait would immediately be open to all. That signing did not happen.

The tentative agreement

On Monday 15 June the United States and Iran reached an initial agreement that would broaden the ceasefire and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan, the key mediator, said the accord would be signed on Friday in Geneva. Until then shipping is likely to remain restricted through the chokepoint, which handles roughly 20 % of the world’s oil and whose closure has triggered a global energy crisis.

A lot remains until Friday.

The memorandum includes just 60 days to decide what to do with Iran’s highly enriched uranium reserves and its atomic programme, issues that took years to resolve in the 2015 nuclear deal. Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of that accord in his first term, paving the way for the tensions that culminated in the current war.

Israel-Lebanon war threatens the pact

Israel is not part of the agreement and continues its offensive in Lebanon against the Iran-backed Hezbollah. Israel’s defence minister said on Monday that the country would not withdraw from occupied land in Lebanon. A spokesman for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office added that Israel will continue to defend itself against any threat to its security. Iran has insisted that any deal to end the war must include a halt to the fighting in Lebanon, so this alone could derail the agreement.

Hormuz tariffs and sovereignty

Iranian news agency Fars, citing an informed source on the negotiations, reported that the final text of the memorandum was modified to explicitly underscore Iran’s and Oman’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement stipulates that the future administration of maritime services in the Strait will be determined by the two countries. According to the same source, passage of ships without cost is assured only for 60 days, after which Iran plans to collect fees for security, navigation, environmental protection and insurance services. The United States has accepted the principle of tariff collection, with a 60‑day exemption from Iran.

French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking from the G7 opening in Evian-les-Bains, warned that reopening the Strait with the imposition of tolls would be contrary to international law. He said France and Britain are ready to lead a mission with the Netherlands and Italy once the US-Iran deal is applied, and that the mission could be deployed within two or three days.

International reaction and oil impact

In the coming weeks we will have an impact on oil prices.

Macron stressed the need to make the reopening a lasting reality. Lebanese President Michel Aoun welcomed the memorandum’s recognition that Lebanon’s security is integral to regional stability.

We hope that these understandings turn into concrete steps that end definitively the cycle of violence and establish a phase of stability, security, recovery and reconstruction.

Leaders from Europe to China have welcomed the accord, but the coming days will determine whether it holds.