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Today’s Brief

A Peshawar school roof collapses

Zelensky resumes refinery strikes as Peshawar school collapse kills dozens of children

Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine has resumed strikes on Russian refineries after a roughly three-day US-requested pause, as Kyiv counted more than 850 Shahed drones between midnight and 9am on 15 October. In Peshawar, a private-school roof collapsed onto classrooms, killing at least 32 children and a teacher in the latest hospital count.

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  • Ukraine peace talks in Miami

    A Ukrainian drone strike hits an oil refinery in Russia's Ryazan region, igniting a fire at the site, Russian authorities say.

  • US-Russia diesel deal dispute

    The Kremlin calls European opposition to the US-Russia diesel agreement destructive, while the White House defends the pact following criticism from Italy's Giorgia Meloni.

  • EU summit opens in Brussels

    Volodymyr Zelensky arrives in Brussels for talks with EU leaders and NATO chief Mark Rutte, urging direct pressure on Russia.

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World · Updated 10m ago

China and the West: decoupling

The summit opened with draft language already reported, and the UK signal is a coordination intent, not a measure; no new binding act.

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Photo: Chris McAndrew, CC BY 3.0 (Wikimedia Commons, cropped)
Government·1h ago

Healey poised to raise bank taxes in 28 October Budget as energy bills rise

The Guardian reports Chancellor John Healey is poised to lift the bank surcharge in his first Budget on 28 October, while energy support and rising Ofgem price caps also loom.

Banks in line for a tax rise

Senior banking executives have told the BBC they expect the sector to be "on the menu" when Chancellor John Healey presents his first Budget on 28 October. Healey has called the banks part of "the crown jewels" of the UK economy, yet he has not ruled out a raid on them. The Guardian reports he is poised to tax the sector to offset the damage the war with Iran has done to public finances.

The BBC reports the biggest four banks made around £15bn in profit in the first six months of 2026. They currently pay a 3% surcharge on top of the 25% corporation tax rate, plus a levy on their balance sheets. The BBC says the surcharge was cut from 8% under Rishi Sunak, while the Guardian credits Jeremy Hunt with the cut. Returning it to 8% could raise around £2bn a year.

Bank levy and bank surcharge receipts in 2025 · £bn
Bank levy
1.4
Bank surcharge
1.2
Bank levy
1.4 £bn
Bank surcharge
1.2 £bn

The TUC has pressed for heavier taxation. Its general secretary, Paul Nowak, said:

Britain's big four banks are making a billion pounds a week, while bonuses have hit a post-crash record.

Paul Nowak

UK Finance, the sector's trade body, warned that further increases in bank taxes would weaken competitiveness, discourage investment and job creation.

Energy bills and the VAT cut

Andy Burnham announced on 21 July, days after taking office, that VAT on household electricity would be cut. He said:

We're taking immediate action to cut taxes on energy bills, put more money in people's pockets and bring back hope.

Andy Burnham

The rate fell from 5% to zero on 1 October, but only until 31 March, the end of the 2026-27 financial year. Gas bills were left out and still carry 5% VAT. The cut is being paid for by scrapping the £1.8bn Digital ID programme. Reports suggest the decision on extending it is likely to slip to the spending review, which could be as late as next autumn.

Key dates in the energy bill and Budget timeline
  1. Jul 21, 2026Burnham announces VAT cut on household electricity bills
  2. Oct 1, 2026VAT cut takes effect; Ofgem cap rises 4% to £1,723 a year
  3. Oct 28, 2026Chancellor's first Budget
  4. Nov 25, 2026Ofgem to confirm January price cap
  5. Mar 31, 2027Electricity VAT cut scheduled to end

Ofgem's price cap rose 4% to £1,723 a year for a typical household on 1 October. Analysts and suppliers forecast a further rise of between 16% and 21% from January, and Ofgem will confirm the January cap by 25 November.

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Budget squeeze and online sellers

Healey spoke to the BBC from the IMF meeting in Bangkok, where he was asked whether the Budget would be austere. He said:

People can see the global economic conflicts, they know the pressure it's putting on them, they understand it's putting pressure on the Government.

John Healey

He did not say whether departments would receive extra cash for doctors' and nurses' pay, saying only that they should "manage with the budgets we've got". The IMF praised the UK's deficit reduction and urged him to "stay the course", while warning that inflation from the conflict could worsen before it eases. The Guardian reports borrowing costs have risen sharply, and analysts suggest that could as much as halve the £24bn cushion Rachel Reeves built against Labour's fiscal rules.

Healey is reportedly looking to spend over £1bn on bigger discounts for less well-off households, most likely through the Warm Home Discount, which gives a £150 yearly rebate to households on qualifying means-tested benefits. The Guardian reports it could be boosted by another £100.

The Times reports that Amazon, eBay and Temu would be made responsible for collecting VAT owed by retailers selling on their platforms, mainly targeting foreign sellers. The measure could raise as much as £1bn, money to be used to cut business rates for high street shops.

London · Bangkok
John HealeyAndy BurnhamPaul NowakRachel ReevesRishi SunakJeremy Hunt
Report a problem with this article
BangkokRishi SunakAndy BurnhamJeremy HuntJohn HealeyLondonPaul NowakRachel Reeves

6 sources

  • Banks expect tax increase in Healey's first Budget
    BBC·2h ago
  • Energy bills set to rise again as Healey won't commit to keeping VAT cut
    inews.co.uk·2h ago
  • John Healey poised to raise taxes on banks in budget
    The Guardian·3h ago
  • The tax rises and cuts to expect from the Budget
    The Independent·3h ago
  • Budget will have to reflect 'tough time', Healey says during IMF visit
    Evening Standard·4h ago
  • Chancellor hints public should prepare for tough Autumn budget | LBC
    LBC·8h ago

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AI-generated text·
Macro·from Oct 13·upd. 5h ago

UK economy grows 0.1% in August as Healey readies first Budget on 28 October

Britain's economy grew 0.1% in August, beating forecasts of a dip, as Chancellor John Healey promised "breathing space" for consumers and businesses in his first Budget on 28 October.

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Government·from Sep 10·upd. Sep 18

Burnham faces NATO defence spending pressure and bond market scrutiny ahead of autumn budget

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pressed the UK for yearly military budget increases to reach 3.5% of GDP, while Chancellor John Healey prepares for a challenging 28 October budget and trade talks in Dublin.

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Macro·Oct 6

Irish government to unveil €8.65 billion budget package with tax cuts and childcare caps

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Photo: Chris McAndrew, CC BY 3.0 (Wikimedia Commons, cropped)
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