Costs including rent were 3.5, 3.4 and 3.3 billion euros in July, August and September 2026, against 3.5, 3.5 and 3.4 billion euros in the same months of 2025.
Friedrich Merz said in a television debate with Olaf Scholz that six billion euros could easily be cut from the Bürgergeld, and has since kept speaking of billions.
Andreas Peichl of the Ifo Institute said at least one million long-term unemployed would need jobs to cut spending noticeably, and that no sanctions regime could achieve this.
Spending has eased for some time as more Ukrainian refugees work and fewer new refugees arrive, though job losses in industry could raise costs later.
The new Grundsicherung, which replaced the Bürgergeld in July 2026 and brings tougher sanctions, has not yet reduced federal costs. On Thursday, 22 October, the Süddeutsche Zeitung reported an analysis of monthly reports from the Federal Ministry of Finance, showing that costs including rent from July to September stayed at the level of the same months in 2025. Monthly spending ran between 3.3 and 3.5 billion euros, against 3.4 to 3.5 billion euros in the prior-year months. Wirtschafts Woche, which reviewed the same figures, reported that August and September came in 100 million euros lower than in 2025, while July showed no difference.
Data from the article text
Data from the article text
Before the 2025 federal election, the Union parties CDU and CSU promised that a reform of the Bürgergeld would save billions. Wirtschafts Woche recalled that Friedrich Merz, then CDU leader and top candidate, said in a television debate with then chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) that six billion euros could easily be cut from the Bürgergeld. Merz did not repeat that exact sum after his election, but he has continued to speak of billions of euros as chancellor. A reader in the Focus online forum recalled that the amount named by Merz in pre-election interviews became smaller with each appearance.
Andreas Peichl of the Ifo Institute told the Süddeutsche Zeitung that the promise had raised expectations the reform could not meet.
“The promise has raised expectations that the reform could not meet.”
Peichl said that cutting spending noticeably would require at least one million long-term unemployed to take jobs, and that no sanctions regime could achieve that. Most recipients are not unemployed, he said, but children, people topping up low wages, single parents or participants in labour-market measures such as training. Wirtschafts Woche argued that the law could never deliver quickly, because pressure alone does not move enough recipients into work without a stable, growing labour market, which has not yet materialised. Many recipients also have addiction or illness, or lack a completed vocational training.
“In the end, it damages the credibility of social reforms as a whole.”
Spending has eased slightly for some time irrespective of the reform, because more Ukrainian refugees are working and fewer new refugees are arriving. Experts warn that job losses in industry could push these costs up again later. According to Focus, breaches of duties can be penalised immediately by cutting the standard benefit rate since July. The law also changed the rules on assets, housing costs and cooperation with the Jobcentres, so the reform goes well beyond a renaming of the Bürgergeld.
Most readers in the Focus online forum criticise the CDU and CSU for a broken election promise. A quarter of readers consider the changes not far-reaching enough and call for limits on benefit duration, housing costs, sanctions or labour-market measures. Some readers, however, cautioned against passing a final verdict after only a few months.
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Federal spending on the new Grundsicherung from July to September matched the same months of 2025, according to an analysis of finance ministry reports. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had promised billions in savings from the reform.
AI text based on reports by N-tv, Wirtschafts Woche, Focus and other publishers. Published .