Germany records nearly 10,000 heat-related deaths in 2026, surpassing any full year since 2016

Germany has recorded an estimated 9,800 heat-related deaths so far in 2026, according to the Robert Koch Institute's (RKI) weekly report published on July 30. The figure, counted through July 19, already exceeds the death toll of any full calendar year since 2016. The previous high was in 2018, when the institute estimated between 8,700 and 9,000 heat-related fatalities over the entire year. Just weeks ago, the Federal Statistical Office had reported 7,100 heat deaths, highlighting how rapidly the toll has climbed.

A deadly June heatwave

More than half of this year's deaths, over 5,000, are attributed to a heatwave in the second half of June, when temperatures reached 40°C across much of the country and some cities recorded 41°C, a national record. From early April through July 12, the RKI counted 7,900 heat-related deaths. An additional 1,900 were added in the week of July 13 to 19 alone. The country also experienced more than ten tropical nights in a span of a few weeks, leaving vulnerable populations with little overnight relief.

Consequently, we anticipate that heatwaves occurring this summer will similarly lead to increased mortality.

How the toll is calculated

Heat is rarely listed as a direct cause of death. Instead, it exacerbates pre-existing cardiovascular, lung, and kidney conditions, often killing days after the hottest temperatures. The RKI therefore estimates heat-related mortality by comparing death counts during hot weeks with those in cooler summer periods, using temperature data from 52 weather stations of the German Weather Service (DWD). In weeks where the average temperature exceeds 20°C, mortality rises sharply. The week of July 13–19 had an average of 20.9°C, with 12 of Germany's 16 federal states recording averages above 20°C. During the last week of June, when the weekly average temperature hit 26°C, around 23,600 people died, roughly 30% above the typical 18,200 for that period.

This is a statistical connection.

Alexandra Schneider, deputy head of the Institute of Epidemiology at the Helmholtz Centre in Munich, explained that the RKI's figures are derived from this statistical relationship between temperature and mortality, not from death certificates. The institute also noted that excess mortality this year is estimated at nearly 16,000, suggesting the heat's toll could be even higher than the model indicates.

The elderly bear the brunt

Older people are overwhelmingly the victims. Of the 9,800 deaths, 5,420 were among those aged 85 and older, 2,460 in the 75–84 group, 1,260 aged 65–74, and 630 under 65. More women than men died, a disparity the RKI attributes to the higher proportion of women in older age groups. The institute's historical data shows that after the severe heat years of 2018 (8,700 deaths) and 2019 (6,900), annual heat-related fatalities fell to between 2,600 and 4,900 from 2022 to 2025, raising hopes that warning systems and heat action plans were working. The 2026 surge has dashed those hopes.

Calls for better protection

The extreme heat has reignited a political debate over heat protection. Opposition parties in the Bundestag are demanding more investment in cooled hospitals, nursing homes, and public cooling centres. The discussion also centres on who should bear the costs. With temperatures expected to reach 39°C on July 30 as another heatwave grips the country, the pressure for action is mounting.

An ongoing crisis

The RKI's count stops at July 19, meaning the final 2026 toll will almost certainly be higher. The national temperature record was broken at the end of June, and forecasters warn of further extreme heat. The institute's warning that future heatwaves will bring more deaths has intensified calls for adaptation measures.