German wine harvest 2026 heads for lowest since 2010, with good quality expected

A harvest below average

The Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis) estimates Germany's 2026 wine must harvest at about 8.0 million hectolitres, 5 percent more than the 7.7 million hectolitres of 2025 but 4 percent below the 2020 to 2025 average, a shortfall of about 30 million litres. That figure rests on an estimate dated 20 September, when the harvest was not yet complete. The German Wine Institute (DWI) in Bodenheim is more pessimistic in its first forecast, putting the crop about 20 percent below its ten-year average of 8.7 million hectolitres. That would make it the smallest since 2010, when 7.1 million hectolitres were recorded. DWI spokesman Ernst Büscher said at the end of the harvest that the 2025 total was 7.7 million hectolitres. He attributed the gap between the two forecasts to lower juice yields during pressing, and said the crop load had looked good in mid-September:

The crop load in the vineyards was quite good and probably still pointed to larger quantities in mid-September.

Small berries, strong quality

Drought and heat left the berries small and more concentrated in their contents, a combination both bodies expect to lift quality. Destatis said large-scale weather damage had been absent in 2026, apart from locally limited hail, and that the grapes pointed to a good vintage. Roughly 70 percent of the estimated volume is white must and 30 percent red. Destatis described the season in these words:

The wine year 2026 so far has been characterised by drought and heat.

The DWI expects comparatively small total volumes but top-quality wines, and the harvest was almost complete everywhere except a few exceptions, notably Saale-Unstrut.

Regions split sharply

Destatis expects higher yields than 2025 in seven wine regions: the three largest, Rheinhessen, Pfalz and Baden, plus Württemberg, Rheingau, Hessische Bergstraße and Mittelrhein. Declines are forecast for Mosel, Franken, Ahr, Saale-Unstrut and Sachsen. Rheinhessen is expected to yield 2.4 million hectolitres, the Pfalz 2.1 million, Baden 1.2 million and Württemberg 772,000 hectolitres, together 56 percent of the German total. Destatis noted that the gains in the three largest regions partly reflect particularly low 2025 volumes there. By variety, Riesling is expected to rise 8 percent to 1.8 million hectolitres and Dornfelder 9 percent, while Grüner Silvaner and Blauer Portugieser decline. Büscher said yields varied strongly within regions according to vine age and soil water retention:

Older vines have adapted over recent years to the increasing drought in the wine regions and, thanks to their deep roots, have come through this year's drought remarkably well.

Younger vineyards and plantings on light soils, by contrast, visibly suffered from water shortage.

Burgundy study places harvests in a longer record

A study by climate historian Thomas Labbé, published in Climate of the Past, analysed harvest dates in Beaune in Burgundy from 1354 to the present. Labbé found that phases of extreme heat with early harvests recurred on average every 17 years between 1354 and 1719, every 53 years from 1720 to 1987, and every five years since 1988. The 21st century has already seen ten such years, a rhythm of about two and a half years. Labbé described the trend as an "Explosion" of extreme years. This year the crémant harvest in Burgundy began earlier than in any year in the region's recorded history.