German grain harvest drops 7% to 41.9 million tonnes after summer drought

Harvest totals and regional disparities

Germany's 2026 grain harvest will drop to 41.9 million tonnes, representing a 7% decline compared to 45.2 million tonnes harvested in 2025, according to the German Farmers' Association (DBV). The forecast sits 1% below the five-year average of 42.5 million tonnes, though it remains above the 37.9 million tonnes recorded during the 2018 drought and 39 million tonnes in 2024. The German Weather Service reported below-average rainfall across the country since March, accompanied by high average temperatures in June and July. The German Raiffeisen Association estimated an even lower total output of 40.6 million tonnes, though national annual consumption of roughly 40 million tonnes keeps the domestic grain supply secured. Yields fell to an average of 6.9 tonnes per hectare across all grain varieties, a 9% drop from 2025. Yield outcomes varied widely by geography, with winter wheat in Bavaria ranging between 2 and 10 tonnes per hectare.

In particular in southern and western Germany, lack of precipitation led to weak yields and even crop failures for individual crops.

Crop breakdowns from grains to fruit

Prolonged dry conditions in spring followed by a late June heatwave damaged staple crops during the critical grain filling period. Winter wheat production fell 7% to 20.7 million tonnes, while winter rapeseed dropped to 3.3 million tonnes due to dry soils and pest infestations. Winter barley held steady at 9.5 million tonnes, matching 2025 levels because the crop reached maturity before the heatwave began. Specialized crops also experienced water stress, as potatoes halted growth at temperatures above 28 degrees Celsius, and northern farms in Schleswig-Holstein recorded a 30% increase in irrigation needs. According to the Federal Statistical Office, national apple yields are forecast to drop 18% compared to last year to 934,000 tonnes, whereas plum yields are projected to exceed the ten-year average by 11.5% at 49,300 tonnes.

Livestock feed deficits and herd reductions

Parched grasslands created severe feed shortages for livestock operations, as high temperatures prevented grass from regrowing after early seasonal cuts. A survey conducted by the Bavarian Farmers' Association (BBV) found that nearly 80% of farms in Bavaria rated their pastures as poor or insufficient. Around 40% of responding Bavarian farmers, including more than half in the Upper Palatinate, stated that they must buy supplemental feed immediately. In Schleswig-Holstein, dairy farmer Hauke Kaack reported total losses on two out of four seasonal grass cuts alongside stunted feed maize. These forage deficits have led cattle owners across southern Germany to adjust herd calculations through mid-2027, leading to higher cow slaughter rates that have pushed down wholesale beef prices.

Our farms currently need seed and diesel, later fertilizer and crop protection products.

Economic pressures and policy response

DBV leadership demanded an immediate financial relief package from the federal government on Tuesday to stabilize farm liquidity. The requested package includes expanding EU fertilizer aid from 60 million euros to 180 million euros, bringing forward 80% of EU direct agricultural payments to October, and cutting diesel taxes. Higher domestic labor and production expenses have also increased cost competition with foreign produce, with German sweet cherries priced near 4 euros per kilogram compared to 3.30 euros for imports from Turkey. Federal Agriculture Minister Alois Rainer stated that federal states remain primarily responsible for extreme weather relief while pointing to tax adjustments enacted earlier in the year.

I do not expect prices to rise immediately because food prices also depend on many other factors, the supply chain, transportation and production.