Ukraine's drone campaign cripples Russian refineries, triggering fuel crisis for 50 million

A sustained campaign

Ukrainian forces have escalated drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure deep behind the front lines, targeting refineries and tank farms from Omsk to the Black Sea coast. The attacks have intensified sharply over the past week: a strike on the Omsk refinery on July 6, damage to the Saratov refinery on July 8, and a massive overnight assault on July 9-10 that Russia's defence ministry said involved 376 drones. The campaign aims to choke Moscow's ability to fund its war effort by disrupting hydrocarbon processing and logistics.

Saratov refinery halts operations

The Saratov refinery, around 600 km east of the Ukrainian front line, halted operations after its CDU-6 crude distillation unit was hit by drones on July 8, two sources told Reuters. The unit, the refinery's only distillation tower of its kind, processes 20,000 metric tonnes of crude per day (about 147,000 barrels). Saratov accounts for roughly 2.2% of Russia's total refining volume and produces more than 20 petroleum products, including gasoline, diesel and bitumen. Governor Roman Busargin reported one fatality and several injuries from the attack, while the facility stopped selling products on the St Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. The refinery had already suspended work after strikes in March and May, and Ukrainian general staff described it as a significant supplier to the Russian military.

Ilsky and southern Russia under fire

Overnight on July 9-10, the Ilsky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region caught fire when drone debris fell, according to the regional crisis headquarters. No casualties were reported, but the 138,000 barrel-per-day facility has now been targeted multiple times. In the neighbouring Rostov region, Governor Yury Slyusar said two hydrocarbon depots in Azov and the maritime port of Taganrog were ablaze. Mayor Svetlana Kambulova reported that residents were evacuated from affected neighbourhoods, a private house was damaged and the roof of an administrative building caught fire. Russian air defences claimed to have destroyed 376 Ukrainian drones during the 11-hour window.

Fuel crisis spreads across the country

The cumulative damage has produced the most acute fuel shortage Russia has seen in decades, according to analysis by The Financial Times. Roughly 50 million people, or 35% of the population, are directly affected by scarcity. Drivers in some regions wait up to 12 hours to refuel, and videos of altercations at petrol stations circulate on social media. Regional governments have introduced rationing, including alternating refuelling days based on odd or even licence plate numbers. In annexed Crimea, the situation is so severe that a state of emergency was declared and electronic coupons were introduced for fuel distribution. According to local journalists, only one of Russia's 89 regions has so far avoided imposing energy-use restrictions.

Several Siberian regions have urged residents and employers to cut consumption. In Tomsk, Vice-Governor Olga Krilova advised officials to rely more on remote work.

Officials are recommended to plan business travel more carefully and to make greater use of remote forms of interaction, such as holding online meetings.

In Novosibirsk, Vice-Governor Konstantin Khalzov signed a decree recommending that all employers allow staff to work from home except essential personnel, and urged citizens to minimise the use of private cars. The decree warned that anyone who must drive should ensure they have enough fuel for a round trip.

International reaction

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, speaking after the NATO summit on July 9, acknowledged Ukraine's growing effectiveness in hitting Russian energy assets. He said the Omsk strike on one of Russia's biggest refineries was part of a pattern of accelerating damage over the past two months.

Clearly Ukraine is being very successful in hitting energy infrastructure in Russia. In Omsk they managed to hit one of the biggest refineries in Russia. And that is part of a pattern over the last two months, in which Ukraine is becoming more and more effective at hitting energy infrastructure in Russia.

Rutte noted that queues had grown so long that portable toilets were installed because people waited overnight for petrol. He expressed doubt, however, that this would sway President Vladimir Putin, whom he described as willing to sacrifice up to 30,000 soldiers per month in the war.