Russian petrol output covers just 65% of demand after Ukrainian drone strikes cripple refineries

Production collapse

Russia's petrol production now meets only 65% of domestic demand, Reuters reported on Friday citing sources in the petrochemical sector. The deficit, estimated at 35% relative to seasonal norms, follows months of systematic Ukrainian drone strikes against refining infrastructure. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged at a televised government meeting that the situation was causing public alarm and attributed shortages to refinery outages caused by drone attacks.

We must admit that we are facing problems and shortages, hence the queues. Disruptions sometimes occur at petrol stations. The shortage results from obvious reasons. Our refineries are partially out of service due to drone attacks.

Kyiv estimates Russian plants have lost up to 30% of their processing capacity. Among the facilities forced to halt production are two of the country's largest refineries, in Kstovo in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and in Omsk in Siberia, as well as major plants in Saratov.

On the ground

Motorists across Russia are spending hours, sometimes entire days, queueing at the few stations still dispensing fuel. In Chita, Zabaykalsky Krai, drivers wait up to 36 hours and some have had their cars run dry mid-queue, according to social media footage cited by Deutsche Welle. Internet users report that queue spots are being resold for as much as 35,000 roubles (over 1,700 zloty). A resident of Gelendzhik told Deutsche Welle she had been trying to fill up for three days, arriving at 5 a.m. and sleeping in her car, without success.

In the resort town of Anapa on the Black Sea, Reuters journalists found Cossack militiamen directing traffic at a petrol station. Yuri Komarov, dressed in a white shirt and black fur hat, said his task was to ensure people could refuel as efficiently as possible. He attributed the problems to drivers changing their habits, filling a full tank just in case instead of their usual 10 litres. Taxi drivers are cancelling longer routes and fare prices have risen, Kommersant reported.

Moscow's response

The Kremlin has imposed a temporary ban on exports of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel, and began importing diesel and petrol from Belarus in June. In July, Russia started seaborne imports of petrol from India, Reuters sources said. Novak blamed speculative behaviour by independent distributors for price spikes while insisting that vertically integrated companies such as Rosneft were keeping prices within inflation bounds. He offered no evidence that small private station operators could drive a nationwide shortage.

I would like to point out that in times of shortage, speculative factors often appear, and some distributors try to use the situation to earn extra money and raise prices.

Fresh attacks

On Friday, the Ilsky refinery in Krasnodar Krai caught fire after a drone raid, local authorities confirmed via Telegram. The plant has a capacity of 138,000 barrels per day, or roughly 6-6.6 million tonnes of crude annually. In the Rostov region, strikes hit the Kurgannefteprodukt port terminal in Taganrog, which stores and trans-ships oil products arriving by rail, as well as two fuel depots in Azov. Governor Yuri Sliusar reported no casualties in the Azov blaze. Taganrog mayor Svetlana Kambulova said residents were evacuated from areas near the attack sites and that a private house and an administrative building were damaged. Russia's defence ministry claimed air defence units shot down 376 Ukrainian drones overnight.

Coping and consequences

Many Russians are changing daily routines: organising carpool runs for shopping and school runs, switching to public transport, and in some rural areas buying horses instead of cars, according to the Mash Telegram channel. A resident of Irkutsk told Deutsche Welle she had given up driving after repeated failed refuelling attempts. Elsewhere, the crisis has revived low-quality Euro-3 petrol, banned from wide circulation several years ago, which is damaging engines, the Nexta news channel reported. The energy ministry did not respond to Reuters' request for comment.