Motyka says Poland's fuel price package cuts inflation 1 point a month

Inflation impact and funding

Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka told the Sejm that the ministry asked independent analytical centres to assess the effect of the CPN package (Ceny Paliwa Niżej, or Fuel Prices Lower) on inflation. According to those estimates, the package lowers inflation by 1 percentage point a month. The government plans to spend just under 10 billion zloty on fuel price cuts in 2026, a scale Motyka said cannot be compared with any relief programme run by other EU states. Part of that money will come from a 60% tax on excess profits of fuel companies, covering extraordinary profits earned from 1 March 2026 to 31 March 2027.

Motyka summarised the benefit in simple terms:

A one percentage point lower monthly rise in inflation is a real benefit for our economy.

The Constitutional Tribunal dispute

The law introducing the windfall tax was signed on 1 October by President Karol Nawrocki, who at the same time referred it to the Constitutional Tribunal for follow-up review. An earlier law on the same subject went to the Tribunal in August under preventive review. Motyka said that this blockade has a measurable cost and that Polish drivers lost 1.5 billion zloty in September because of the president's actions. He made these remarks while answering deputies' questions in the Sejm. The timeline of these steps is set out below.

Pump prices and the 2022 promise

Michał Stajniak of XTB, speaking to Fakt, said that Donald Tusk's 2022 promise of 5.19 zloty per litre of petrol would be 6.49 zloty today if adjusted for inflation of about 25% since June 2022. He argues the fairer measure is wages: in June 2022 one salary bought 828 litres at the actual petrol price of 7.92 zloty per litre, while today the same earnings buy 1,376 litres. Stajniak puts petrol at 6.73 zloty per litre after the latest cut, which he describes as cheaper in real terms than the inflation-adjusted promise. According to Fakt, the opposition keeps reminding Tusk of the 2022 words.

Prices fell by more than 1 zloty per litre for petrol and diesel after the package was restored. The ministry notice sets maximum retail prices for the weekend and for Monday 12 October at no more than 6.97 zloty for petrol 95, 7.85 zloty for petrol 98 and 8.06 zloty for diesel. These caps are higher than the current ones of 6.90, 7.77 and 7.82 zloty. Analysts at e-petrol noted that wholesale prices of all fuels rose recently and forecast that petrol 95 could exceed 7 zloty per litre next week and diesel 8 zloty.

Saudi oil talks

Motyka travels to Saudi Arabia on Sunday for what he described as the first stage of negotiations on oil and gas supplies to Poland, and Orlen representatives will take part. Describing the earlier contacts, he said:

The last meetings were very good and serious. We talked about, among other things, the return of the East-West pipeline to operation, and all of their assurances and declarations have been confirmed.

Those talks, held in Houston, covered restarting the East-West pipeline, which lets Saudi crude reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia supplies about half of Poland's imported oil according to Do Rzeczy, while Motyka put the share at 50% of supplies. The minister said the priority is protecting Poland from any cut in volume if the crisis escalates or ports are blockaded. He added that Polish fuel reserves are untouched and cover more than 91 days, and that some petrol stations in France had run short.