Bank of France sees third-quarter French growth at 0.1% as uncertainty jumps

Growth estimate unchanged

The Bank of France confirmed on Monday, 12 October 2026, that it expects French GDP to have grown 0.1% in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter, when the economy stagnated. The estimate, given in the central bank's monthly outlook, is unchanged from its mid-September forecast, when it lowered the figure from 0.2%. According to the estimate, the service sector just about made up for weakness in manufacturing, construction and agriculture. The bank also lowered its full-year forecast to 0.4% from 0.5%, after a 0.2% contraction in the first quarter and stability in the second.

Sector divergence

The monthly survey of 8,500 executives, conducted between 27 September and 5 October, found that manufacturing output kept rising in September but by less than firms had expected. Aerospace stayed very active, while food processing, metallurgy and automotive production also grew. Clothing, textiles and footwear rebounded clearly, and computer, electronic and optical products rose by less than expected. Electrical equipment output fell, which the bank linked to high production in August, although demand stayed strong, driven by data centres. Rubber, plastics and glass activity was broadly flat, and wood, paper and printing stabilised after two monthly declines. Construction barely grew, helped by work resuming on sites delayed by the summer heatwaves, but order books remain thin, particularly for single-family homes.

Costs, cash and uncertainty

Executives reported that companies were caught between rising costs and weak sales. Prices for industrial raw materials, especially energy, fuel and metals, climbed sharply in September, but firms passed on only part of the increase to customers. Cash positions deteriorated in both industry and services, with restaurants reporting weak demand and professional services firms flagging longer payment delays. The bank's uncertainty indicator, based on text mining of the executives' responses, jumped in September, reversing a steady decline since March, with fuel prices the main concern. The bank said some companies are postponing projects and households are becoming more cautious with their spending.

Outlook for October

For October, firms expect industrial output to accelerate, but car production is set to fall sharply because of temporary plant shutdowns linked to supply shortages. Service activity is expected to keep growing at a slower pace, and construction is forecast to be roughly stable. The bank described the economy as operating in a fragile environment, citing the rise in oil prices at the end of the summer and higher uncertainty. The national statistics agency INSEE will publish its preliminary third-quarter GDP reading on 30 October.