Citepa forecasts a 2.8% drop in French emissions in 2026, but the pace is still too slow

A forecast fall with an uneven year

Citepa, the body that compiles France's official greenhouse gas inventory, expects national emissions to fall 2.8% in 2026, a sharper decline than the 2.1% recorded in 2025. The national total is estimated at 349.4 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent for the year. The forecast was published on Tuesday, 13 October 2026, in a barometer that tracks monthly figures and projections. The decline is concentrated in the first half of the year, when emissions fell 4.1%. Citepa expects the pace to slow to 1.3% in the second half, with emissions from the energy industry forecast to rise over that period.

Diesel prices cut road transport

Transport, which accounts for about a third of French emissions, is forecast to fall 4.8% over 2026. Citepa ties the drop to a 7.3% fall in diesel sales in the first half of 2026. Diesel is used by more than two-thirds of road vehicles, so the sales decline carries heavy weight in the transport figure. Diesel prices rose sharply amid Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and hostilities between the Houthis of Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Citepa links the sales drop to the war in the Middle East and the surge in pump prices. BFMTV reports that the price rise has angered French motorists, even as it discourages car use.

Buildings and the heating season

Buildings used for residential and tertiary purposes record the largest reduction in the first half and are forecast to fall 5.9% over 2026, despite a slight rebound expected in the second half. Citepa attributes this mainly to lower emissions from heating, hot water and cooking in residential and tertiary buildings, tied to falling natural gas consumption. Ecological Transition Minister Monique Barbut called the decline "encouraging" and said it "is not yet enough to reach our climate objectives". Citepa itself frames the next steps in terms of the budgets France must respect.

The decline in emissions will therefore need to accelerate in the coming years in order to respect carbon budgets and reach France's objectives.

A gap with the 2030 target

Citepa notes that the pace remains well below what France needs to meet its climate goals. The national roadmap sets a 50% cut in emissions by 2030 compared with 1990, which implies a reduction of about 5% a year between 2024 and 2030. The indicative trajectory of the third National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC 3), adopted in July 2026, sets reductions of 5.7% in 2027 and 6.1% in 2028 compared with the previous year. Anne Bringault, programme director at the Réseau action climat (RAC), which groups numerous NGOs, said the shift has not yet arrived.

The acceleration of the ecological and just transition is not yet here.

What the second half holds

The 2.8% figure is a forecast built on first-half data and barometer estimates, not a measured annual total. Citepa expects the slowdown in the second half to coincide with higher emissions from the energy industry. The buildings sector is expected to rebound slightly in that period, though its full-year decline stays at 5.9%. Transport emissions are projected to fall 4.8% for the year, with the second-half outlook depending on how diesel prices and sales develop.