Trump and Iran agree to fragile peace after 100-day war, Strait of Hormuz set to reopen

The agreement

The United States and Iran announced a peace deal on 15 June, bringing an end to a 100-day military campaign that began with the US-led Operation Epic Fury on 28 February. President Donald Trump took to social media to proclaim the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

I authorise the full and toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and, simultaneously, I authorise the immediate withdrawal of the US naval blockade. Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!

The agreement’s main concrete step is the cessation of hostilities and the clearing of Iranian mines from the waterway. However, the deal leaves unresolved the fundamental disputes that triggered the war, including Iran’s nuclear programme and the status of Hezbollah.

Economic relief

Global stock markets rallied on news of the ceasefire, and energy prices fell immediately. Brent crude oil dropped to around $83 per barrel, while European natural gas declined to roughly €44 per megawatt-hour.

Despite the relief, both benchmarks remain well above their pre‑crisis levels of $70‑75 and €30‑35 respectively. Alicia Coronil, chief economist at Singular Bank, warned that energy prices will stay elevated in the short term because of damage to Gulf infrastructure, drawn‑down strategic reserves, and the slow process of clearing mines from the strait.

Energy prices will remain above the levels seen before the start of Operation Epic Fury on 28 February.

Strategic and political fallout

Iran emerges from the war with a reinforced regime and a narrative of having withstood one of the most intense bombing campaigns of the 21st century. Israel, whose prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu sought to prolong the fighting to weaken Hezbollah, saw its objectives unmet. The Lebanese group survived and even surprised Tel Aviv with drone attacks.

Domestically, Trump faced pressure from looming midterm elections that threatened the Republican majority, a factor that contributed to the push for a quick deal. Spanish transport minister Óscar Puente voiced sharp criticism of the outcome.

How many dead, how many millions spent on weapons, how much damage caused to the international community and to the concept of multilateralism, only to end up back at square one?

Fragile foundation

Analysts are deeply sceptical. Pedro Rodríguez described the agreement as a diplomatic “trompe l’oeil” and argued it only undoes one consequence of the war, the closure of the strait, without addressing deeper tensions.

In all the fundamental questions, disagreement remains. The only way a real agreement could prosper would be a capitulation by the United States.

Miguel Sebastián noted that while the deal is positive news, Iran comes out strategically better than before the war, and the economic impact is far from over. He pointed to stubborn underlying inflation in Spain, with core CPI at 3%, as an illustration of lingering price pressures.