Trump hails fragile truce with Iran as Hormuz reopening hangs on toll dispute and mine clearance
A digital memorandum signed Monday ends more than three months of fighting but leaves key issues unresolved, including whether ships will pay tolls and how quickly mines can be cleared.
A tentative memorandum ends hostilities
The US and Iran digitally signed a one-and-a-half-page memorandum of understanding on Monday, ending more than three months of war across fronts including Lebanon. The official ceremony is set for Friday in Geneva, with Vice President JD Vance and negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Vance described the document as "very generic", noting that many technical issues remain unresolved.
The protocol of understanding is about a page and a half long, so it's a very generic document. On several issues, we'll have to find a solution during the technical negotiation phase.
The Strait of Hormuz: toll-free for 60 days
Trump declared the strait would reopen fully and permanently without tolls, but Iranian media say free passage is limited to 60 days. The Islamic Republic intends to later charge for support services, effectively a toll. Iran has also laid mines, and demining could take between three and six months, according to analysts.
It's unlikely that Iranian leaders will agree to fully reopen the Strait without getting something in return.
Markets find relief, but a risk premium persists
Oil prices dropped 5%, with Brent slipping near $80 per barrel, while European gas fell 9%. Analysts warn that a "permanent risk" now embedded in crude means prices will stay above the pre-war level of $73 for some time. Full resumption of the pre-war flow of over 20 million barrels a day is not expected before late August.
- War begins with US-Israel coalition strikes on Iran
- Trump announces truce deal on his 80th birthday
- Digital signing of memorandum by Trump, Vance and Ghalibaf
- Official ceremony in Geneva; Strait of Hormuz set to reopen, free passage for 60 days
- Full oil flows targeted to resume if demining and renegotiation proceed
Allies pledge ships, Israel digs in
At the G7 in Évian-les-Bains, Emmanuel Macron said France could deploy frigates and an aircraft carrier within 48 hours to help clear the strait; Giorgia Meloni offered Italian naval support pending parliamentary approval. Britain, France, Germany and Italy announced readiness to lift some sanctions but insisted Iran never acquire nuclear weapons. However, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated the IDF will remain in security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza "indefinitely". An anonymous tanker captain off Hormuz said, "Until Israel stops launching missiles, it's all very precarious."
Obama slams deal, Iran seeks control
Former President Barack Obama, who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal later scrapped by Trump, called the new accord unlikely to be a significant improvement. The original agreement required inspections and restricted uranium enrichment; Trump called it "terrible". Now, Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf signed digitally, but President Masoud Pezeshkian cautioned that a definitive deal does not yet exist. Tehran reportedly wants to maintain control over the strait, a leverage demonstrated during the war.
