Fitch affirms Greece at BBB with stable outlook, debt seen falling to 124.6% of GDP by 2028

A rating held, not raised

Fitch Ratings affirmed Greece's long-term issuer default rating at BBB with a stable outlook, announced on Friday, 6 November 2026. The decision keeps the country in investment grade and makes no change to its rating, so there is no upgrade despite progress on the public finances. According to the agency's website, the affirmation covers both the foreign-currency and the local-currency long-term ratings. The decision completes the 2026 cycle for the five agencies recognised by the European Central Bank.

Debt remains the main constraint

Fitch describes very high public debt as the main limit on the rating, even though its rapid decline strengthens sustainability. General government debt reached 146.1% of GDP in 2025, and Fitch forecasts a drop to 124.6% in 2028. That decline rests on large primary surpluses, strong nominal GDP growth, a favourable gap between interest rates and growth, and active debt management that includes early loan repayments. Greek debt will stay well above the median for BBB-rated countries, which Fitch puts at 56.9% of GDP. Even so, the agency expects Greece to fall below Italy and stop having the eurozone's highest debt-to-GDP ratio by the end of 2026.

2025146.1%

2028 (Fitch forecast)124.6%

2025

146.1 %

2028 (Fitch forecast)

124.6 %

Data from the article text

Financing risks are limited

Fitch sees the structure of the debt and its low servicing cost as limiting the risks tied to the high debt stock. Greece's average maturity is 19 years, a large share of its debt carries favourable fixed-rate terms, and its cash reserve is projected at about 12% of GDP in 2026. The implied interest rate on total public debt is around 1.5%, below expected nominal GDP growth of roughly 4%. The agency links this to limited pass-through of market rate changes into debt costs, including part of the debt owed to official creditors where interest-rate risk has been offset. Fitch says these features reduce refinancing risk and support market access.

Fiscal gains and remaining weaknesses

The rating rests on what Fitch calls exceptionally strong fiscal performance relative to comparable countries. The agency forecasts a general government surplus of 0.6% of GDP in 2026. Against those gains, it names persistent external imbalances, structural constraints on growth and the very high debt as weaknesses that remain. Those weaknesses are what keep the rating from moving higher, even as the debt falls quickly.

Other agencies' 2026 moves

Other rating agencies moved in a different direction during the second half of the year. Scope upgraded Greece to BBB+ in September. In the same month, Moody's and Morningstar DBRS moved their outlooks from stable to positive, keeping their ratings at Baa3 and BBB respectively. S&P affirmed BBB with a stable outlook in October, and Fitch closed the cycle on Friday.