France to build next-generation fighter alone by 2040 after FCAS programme collapses

The end of a flagship

The Franco-German-Spanish Future Combat Air System (FCAS, or SCAF in French) has been formally abandoned. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Emmanuel Macron decided on Monday 8 June to end the programme after months of deadlock between the two lead contractors, Dassault and Airbus. The project was launched in 2017 by Macron and then-Chancellor Angela Merkel, with Spain joining two years later. It was intended to replace France's Rafale and Germany's Eurofighter Typhoon from the 2040s onward.

Eight years of effort, 2.5 billion in investments.

French defence minister Catherine Vautrin told the Senate on Wednesday 10 June that nearly all of that sum will allow France to continue working on a fighter jet through to 2040. She described the French industrial team (Dassault, Safran, Thalès) as the only one in Europe capable of producing a combat aircraft entirely autonomously.

Why it fell apart

The official explanation points to an unresolved industrial dispute. Dassault, representing France, demanded leadership over the fighter design. Airbus, speaking for Germany and Spain, wanted co-equal development rights. Political mediation failed to bridge the gap. Beyond the boardroom, the strategic context shifted. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said in late May that the war in Ukraine had rendered the project obsolete. The massive use of drones has exposed the limits of crewed fighters, and air forces now have diverging requirements that make design compromises less acceptable.

A compromise in the design is less and less acceptable.

Roland Berger consultant Florian Aknin noted that FCAS was conceived when defence budgets were stagnant or shrinking and the logic was cost-sharing. Today, budgets are rising to counter the Russian threat and US disengagement from NATO, changing the calculus entirely.

France's solo path

Vautrin insisted the €2.5 billion already committed is not lost. Half went to fully sovereign development and half to partnered work. She framed the outcome as a technical advantage for French sovereignty. Dassault CEO Éric Trappier had previously stated his company could build a future European fighter alone if necessary. However, economist Julien Malizard of the Institut des hautes études de défense nationale cautioned that a next-generation fighter represents a technological leap beyond the Mirage and Rafale programmes, and financing it under the current military programming law will be difficult.

Industrially, France has the experience of the Mirage and the Rafale, which shows our skills, but there is a technological leap. It is a gigantic project and given the current military programming law, it will be complicated to finance.

Germany's next move

Airbus is expected to formalise an alliance of eight mostly German companies in Berlin on Thursday 11 June to develop an alternative sixth-generation fighter. Industry sources quoted by AFP described the move as lobbying rather than a serious consortium, noting the absence of Spanish firms and the inclusion of missile-maker MBDA, which has no direct role in airframe development. One expert noted that Airbus lacks the in-house capability to build a fighter from scratch, having relied on BAE Systems and Leonardo for the Eurofighter.

What survives of FCAS

Not every element of the programme is dead. Merz has signalled he wants to continue other FCAS workstreams with France, particularly the secure digital combat cloud. Reuters reported that systems around the jet could still be developed under the FCAS name as a face-saving measure. The two countries' defence ministers have been tasked with outlining a cooperation framework by the next Franco-German government meeting in July.

The financial question

The full FCAS programme, including drones and the combat cloud, was estimated at over €100 billion. With Berlin out of the core fighter project, the question of how France finances a solo effort remains open. Les Echos reports that the answer in parliamentary and defence ministry corridors is simply "joker" (pass). The Rafale's own F5 standard upgrade, designed to enable drone control and collaborative combat, is already facing difficulties, and the United Arab Emirates had at one point been ready to co-finance it.