Poland extends fuel VAT cut and price caps to end of June, but excise break will expire June 15
Warsaw published a regulation on Friday extending the 8 percent VAT on motor fuels and daily maximum prices until 30 June, while a source close to the Ministry of Finance confirmed the reduced excise duty will not be renewed beyond 15 June.
The Polish government has split its fuel-price support package into two timelines. A regulation published in the Journal of Laws on Friday keeps the VAT rate on petrol, diesel and biocomponents at 8 percent (down from 23 percent) through the end of the month, and ties the continuation of mandatory maximum prices at filling stations to that VAT window.
Extension of VAT and maximum prices
The two-week extension also means the Minister of Energy will keep setting daily retail price caps. On Friday minister Miłosz Motyka published limits for 13–15 June: unleaded 95 no higher than 6.04 zł per litre, unleaded 98 at 6.58 zł, and diesel at 6.40 zł. Those numbers are modestly higher than the caps in force on Friday (5.98 zł, 6.55 zł and 6.37 zł respectively).
- Unleaded 95
- 6.04 zł/l
- Unleaded 98
- 6.58 zł/l
- Diesel
- 6.4 zł/l
Selling above the official ceiling carries a fine of up to 1 million złoty; enforcement is handled by the National Revenue Administration. The maximum price is binding from the day after publication in the Public Monitor and, when announced before a weekend or holiday, stays in place through the next working day.
Excise duty not extended
In contrast to VAT, the cut in excise duty – 29 groszy per litre for petrol and 28 groszy for diesel, the minimum allowed by EU rules – will lapse after 15 June. A source close to the Ministry of Finance told state news agency PAP:
There were usually two regulations, this time there will be one.
From 16 June onward, only the reduced VAT and the maximum-price mechanism will remain; fuel sold will carry the standard excise rate.
Budget cost
According to Ministry of Finance estimates cited by PAP and other outlets, the excise reduction cost the state budget about 700 million złoty per month, while the VAT reduction cost roughly 900 million złoty per month.
- CPN package enters into force: VAT 8%, excise cut, max prices introduced
- Regulation published extending VAT cut and max prices to 30 June; excise cut set to expire 15 June
- Reduced excise duty ends; only VAT reduction and max prices remain
- Reduced VAT and maximum price mechanism due to expire
Why the package was introduced
The CPN (Ceny Paliwa Niżej) scheme was rushed through parliament and signed by President Karol Nawrocki at the end of March, after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US–Israeli strikes. The move disrupted roughly one-fifth of global crude-oil trade and close to one-third of LNG shipments, sending fuel prices higher at pumps across Poland. On 31 March, when maximum prices first took effect, a litre of 95-octane petrol was capped at 6.16 zł, 98-octane at 6.76 zł and diesel at 7.60 zł.
What analysts expect
Analysts from Reflex had earlier estimated that, if the CPN package were extended on unchanged terms, petrol could drop by 10–15 groszy per litre and diesel by as much as 25 groszy. Without the excise subsidy, however, the price path from mid-June will depend on global crude markets and the daily ceiling set by the energy ministry.
