Rhine and Danube hit record lows, crippling European trade and power output
Water levels on the Rhine fell to or below historic marks at multiple gauges on Friday, while the Danube's drop forced nuclear and hydropower plants from Hungary to Romania to cut or halt output.
Record lows along the Rhine
On Friday morning the gauge at Kaub, the shallowest point for cargo traffic, briefly matched its 2018 record low. At Maxau, near Karlsruhe, the level fell to 3.18 metres, a new minimum for that location. The federal waterways authority WSV predicts the Düsseldorf gauge will drop to 21 centimetres on Saturday, two centimetres below the October 2018 record, and Cologne is expected to tie its 2018 low of 69 centimetres. At Lobith on the Dutch border the Rhine already reached its lowest level since official measurements began. Lake Constance, southern Germany, recorded its lowest water level since 1850 on 28 July.
- Lake Constance records lowest water level since 1850.
- Rhine at Lobith (Dutch border) reaches lowest level ever recorded.
- Kaub matches 2018 low; Maxau hits 3.18 m; Djerdap 1 output falls to 20%; Nuclearelectrica shuts reactor.
- Düsseldorf gauge expected at 21 cm, Cologne at 69 cm, both tying or breaking 2018 records.
- Hungary's Paks nuclear plant to shut down due to low Danube cooling water.
Shipping and industry scramble
Shippers are loading vessels to just 30 to 50 percent of capacity to avoid grounding, while operating costs remain unchanged. Customers face surcharges and longer delivery times as convoys are grouped through locks to conserve water. The German construction federation warned the Rhine is being pushed to its limit by repeated low-water episodes. Professor Stefan Kooths of the University of Kiel estimated the economic damage at 0.1 to 0.2 percent of German GDP in the third quarter, equivalent to 1 to 2 billion euros. The chemical firm Evonik is already examining alternative transport routes.
The water level at Kaub has been below the critical threshold of 78 centimetres for more than 14 days and does not appear set to rise anytime soon.
Energy output curtailed
Low river levels are also draining hydropower and cooling water for thermal plants. Serbia's Djerdap 1 hydropower plant is operating at only 20 percent of capacity, while the Kostolac coal plant has been forced to reduce output. Romania's Nuclearelectrica shut down one of its two reactors earlier this week because of inadequate cooling water from the Danube, and the second is expected to follow. Hungary's Paks nuclear plant, which supplies nearly half of the country's electricity, will close on Monday for what could be weeks. France has also trimmed nuclear generation because of low or overly warm river water. The affected countries are resorting to expensive electricity imports at a time of high spot-market demand.
- Djerdap 1 (Serbia)
- 20 %
- Nuclearelectrica (Romania)
- 50 %
A continental drought
The drought extends well beyond the Rhine. Italy raised its alert level to high in the Po Valley. In Baden-Württemberg, 66 percent of all gauges now show extremely low water levels, and 38 districts have banned the use of surface water. Kpler analyst Alessandro Armenia summed up the breadth of the crisis.
It's affecting not one region like we've seen in the past, but the whole European landscape. Given the current dynamics, it means either we're going to see blackouts or we need to invest way more.
Outlook
The WSV expects the Duesseldorf gauge to slide to a new record low on Saturday. With thunderstorms forecast for the weekend but little sustained rain, the depressed water levels are likely to persist. The construction federation called for urgent modernisation of waterways, while North Rhine-Westphalia's climate minister Mona Neubaur rejected river deepening and said society must prepare for the consequences of climate change.
