European intelligence chiefs warn Russia could test NATO defences within months

Warnings from European intelligence chiefs

European intelligence leaders warned that Russia could escalate operations against NATO territory in months rather than years. In interviews with The Guardian, the heads of intelligence services from the Czech Republic, Latvia and Sweden outlined potential scenarios ranging from sabotage expansion to direct border provocations. Michal Koudelka, the head of the Czech Security Information Service, noted that Moscow aims to weaken public support for Ukraine across European societies.

It is possible. It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign.

While Czech intelligence pointed to potential border incursions, Baltic officials presented a more measured assessment regarding full-scale actions. Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia's State Security Service, stated that his agency sees no indications of an imminent attack, pointing instead to Russian resource limits in Ukraine.

It remains an open question whether they have direct and concrete plans or if it all falls within the context of their general efforts to spread fear and uncertainty in Western society.

Political leaders assess mutual defense risks

The intelligence warnings follow statements by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who warned the Sejm on Thursday about potential Russian drone and missile strikes disguised as accidental incidents. Tusk said Moscow seeks to weaken NATO cohesion and convince member states that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical. French President Emmanuel Macron described the underlying intelligence as solid and well-documented before convening French party leaders on Friday. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys confirmed that Vilnius reviewed matching intelligence assessments during the summer. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten urged European partners to take the warning seriously, while Finnish President Alexander Stubb advised mental preparation for potential disruptions.

Surge in sabotage and drone activity

European security agencies recorded an increase in sabotage operations targeting infrastructure connected to Ukraine. Thomas Nilsson, head of Swedish military intelligence, stated that Russian covert operations seek to cause internal division within NATO and disrupt European defense supply chains. German authorities earlier attributed an attempted attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport, which involved military-grade explosive material on a drone, directly to Russian intelligence services. Across Europe, 100 hybrid incidents were officially attributed to Russia between January and August 2026, according to Politico. Freedom of information records in the United Kingdom revealed that security incidents involving drones near Ministry of Defence sites rose to 340 in the year to August 2026, compared to 250 in 2025 and 126 in 2024.

Undersea infrastructure and diplomatic warnings

Western defense officials are also monitoring maritime and undersea capabilities. Royal Navy First Sea Lord General Sir Gwyn Jenkins warned that Russian undersea warfare capabilities threaten critical energy, data and telecommunications networks. In August 2026, Russia began sea trials for the Khabarovsk nuclear-powered submarine, designed to carry Poseidon nuclear torpedoes. In a parallel diplomatic warning, CIA Director John Ratcliffe travelled to Moscow in August 2026 to caution Kremlin officials directly against attacks on NATO soil. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a joint statement describing the recent incidents as part of a wider campaign of Russian hybrid actions against European territory.