Europe Faces 510,000 Barrel Daily Jet Fuel Deficit as South Korean Imports Hit Four-Year High

Widening European supply deficit

Europe is heading into the fourth quarter of 2026 facing a severe shortfall in aviation fuel supplies. Data from consultancy Energy Aspects projects a European jet fuel deficit of 510,000 barrels per day for the final quarter, extending a similar deficit observed throughout the third quarter. In contrast, other global refining hubs maintain supply buffers, with the United States holding a surplus of 18,000 barrels per day and the Asia-Pacific region registering an excess of 419,000 barrels per day. The deficit stems from the conflict involving Iran, which erupted in February 2026 and disrupted traditional Middle Eastern delivery channels. These disruptions cut off approximately half of Europe's typical jet fuel imports, forcing regional airlines and distributors to restructure their supply chains.

Shift to Asian and alternative suppliers

To fill the supply gap, European buyers have increased purchases from alternative suppliers, including Nigeria, Canada, and the United States. South Korea has emerged as the newest large-scale supplier, lifting its jet fuel deliveries to Europe to 129,000 barrels per day in September 2026 according to Kpler tracking data. This volume represents the highest rate of European imports from South Korea since October 2022, matching figures recorded by LSEG. South Korean refiners raised crude processing rates earlier in the summer, lifting national jet fuel output to 13.89 million barrels in July 2026, a seven-year high, while total fuel exports from the country reached a three-and-a-half-year peak. Average monthly exports from Asia to Europe stood at 1.5 million barrels during the previous year.

James Noel-Beswick from Sparta Commodities described the pricing dynamics that enable these long-distance shipments.

The widening spread between the Asian and European benchmarks is making it more profitable to export barrels into Europe.

Rising prices and depleted inventories

The reliance on distant suppliers coincides with regional stockpiles falling to critical levels. Independently held product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining and storage hub reached their lowest point in seven years during the week ending 10 September 2026. Tight prompt supplies have driven price increases across middle distillates, with European diesel prices reaching an all-time high in the third week of September. Aviation fuel costs have experienced an equivalent surge, climbing from 275.29 cents per gallon on 18 June 2026 to 464.05 cents per gallon by 21 September 2026, an increase of 76 percent over three months.

Middle East shipping workarounds

Prior to the outbreak of hostilities in February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz handled approximately one-fifth of global petroleum consumption. Blockades and security threats prompted shipowners to seek steep war-risk premiums or avoid the strait entirely. In response, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company established ship-to-ship transfer operations off the coast of Oman in April 2026. Shuttle tankers transport crude from Gulf terminals to transfer zones in the Gulf of Oman, loading larger mother ships destined for Asian refineries. September export volumes moving through Hormuz along protected Omani coastal corridors reached approximately 6.5 million barrels per day, the highest level since a post-ceasefire rise in June 2026.