EU warns of tight diesel supply until 2027 and a hard winter ahead

Diesel supply outlook

Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said the global diesel market is expected to remain under tight supply until 2027, which would keep prices high. He said the coming winter of 2026-27 would be difficult and that the European Commission is weighing measures to address it. The press conference in Brussels, reported on 28 October 2026, centred on a high-level dialogue between the Commission and European refineries.

Possible temporary relief

Jørgensen said he was open to temporarily and selectively relaxing some technical requirements, provided such steps prove effective and do not create new problems. He described his contacts with refineries as constructive and said the industry has submitted proposals that the Commission is now assessing. The stated aim is to examine how production can be increased and to find solutions that would help bring fuel prices down.

Fuel for the armed forces

Defence and Space Commissioner Andrius Kubilius focused on the longer-term side of the dialogue, linking fuel supply to the armed forces and to Europe's preparedness for a possible war. He argued that adequate fuel for the EU's armed forces is central to defence readiness and that defence is impossible without fuel. He called for long-term planning that accounts for military fuel needs in peacetime as well as in a crisis, and he repeated a Roman maxim that one must prepare for war in order to keep the peace.

Products in focus

The two commissioners singled out diesel and aviation fuel, both needed for transport and for supplying the armed forces. The discussion therefore links civilian fuel prices with military readiness, a combination that the Commission is treating as a single planning question.