Few EU leaders attend COP31 climate summit in Antalya as Brazil unveils fossil fuel roadmap

Thin turnout in Antalya

The UN climate conference COP31 opened in Antalya on Monday, 9 November, and its two-day Leader's Summit takes place on Wednesday, 11 November and Thursday, 12 November. The provisional speaker list holds about 80 heads of state and government, while earlier summits had more than 100. Spiegel Online put the expected figure at 70 to 80, against normally more than 120. Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Poland and Romania are absent from that list, and together these six countries are home to more than two thirds of the EU population. Of the world's ten most populous countries, only Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil and Ethiopia are represented at that level.

Merz stays home and the criticism follows

Chancellor Friedrich Merz is not travelling to Antalya and cites other commitments. Spiegel Online reported, citing unofficial information, that he is celebrating his 71st birthday in Berlin with his family. Martin Kaiser, head of Greenpeace Germany, told the German Press Agency that the absence was a low point.

“If the federal chancellor and heads of government of other large EU states stay away from the climate conference, that is a low point for European climate diplomacy.”

Christoph Bals of Germanwatch said such absences have happened before and need not hold up the negotiations, though he saw it as a missed opportunity.

“I see this more as a missed opportunity.”

German representation is thin: environment minister Carsten Schneider is the only senior politician travelling, and the development ministry is not represented. Ursula von der Leyen is the EU figure scheduled to make a statement in the plenary.

Brazil's roadmap and Guterres's appeal

On Tuesday, 10 November, Brazil presented a voluntary roadmap for shifting away from coal, oil and gas. Its central steps include a halt to construction of new fossil power plants and a reduction of fossil fuel subsidies. Brazil's presidency of last year's conference in Belém drew up the document after countries there failed to agree unanimously on a shared roadmap. André Corrêa do Lago, president of COP30, handed it to Guterres in Antalya together with a plan to halt deforestation worldwide, both published about a week earlier. Ana Toni, managing director of COP30 in Brazil, told the Associated Press that the aim was to be pragmatic and help countries move forward, and that the roadmap lets states weigh instruments suited to their own situations. Brazil is a large fossil fuel exporter, and Toni did not address its oil exports directly.

In Antalya, Guterres said fossil fuels drive not only the climate crisis but also carry a high economic and security price, and that phasing them out is crucial to limit overshooting 1.5C. He said EU states had paid more than 100 billion euros extra for fossil energy imports since the Iran war began, while nine oil companies had earned more than 95 billion US dollars in three months. He argued that changing supply routes would not solve the problem, and called on every country to draw up national plans, with the states holding the greatest responsibility and capacity leading the way.

Emissions dip and energy prices

The Global Carbon Budget study, released on Tuesday, puts fossil CO2 emissions down 0.4% this year, the first decline since the Covid pandemic. Researchers attribute the fall to expanding renewables and electric mobility, and to an energy shock from the Iran conflict that cut demand for oil and gas. Experts expect the drop to be temporary, because demand could rise again once the conflict ends. The World Meteorological Organization has said 2027 could be the warmest year ever measured. Energy prices also weigh on the talks, as petrol, diesel, cooking gas and fertiliser prices have risen sharply in recent months. Turkey has announced an electrification target, which negotiators will discuss over the conference's two weeks.

Next steps at the summit

Tens of thousands of participants from nearly 200 countries are expected over the two weeks, with Turkey as host and Australia leading the negotiations. Guterres asked COP31 to move from debate to organising, financing and implementing the phase-out. The Leader's Summit on Wednesday and Thursday will show which heads of government actually arrive in Antalya.