What the reports say

Polish news agency PAP, citing EU sources, reports that Poland will be released for another year from the obligation to accept migrants under the migration and asylum pact, or to pay a charge for refusing them. TVP Info, relying on unofficial information, says Poland will most likely be excluded again next year. RMF FM's Brussels correspondent says a preliminary decision has already been taken and that its official announcement is planned for 4 November. The outlets differ in how firmly they describe the decision, but they agree on the outcome: Poland is expected to be exempted for 2027.

How the solidarity mechanism works

The mandatory solidarity mechanism is part of the EU migration pact and has applied across the bloc since June 2026. It obliges member states to support countries facing migration pressure in one of three ways: accepting migrants through relocation, paying money (about 20,000 euro for each migrant not taken in), or providing technical and equipment support. Member states decide for themselves how to meet those solidarity commitments. A commentary on wPolityce.pl describes the mechanism as forced relocation and argues that the exemption offers only a respite, not an end to the threat.

Why Poland is expected to be exempted

Last year the Commission's report recognised Poland both as a country at risk of increased migration pressure and as a state in a difficult migration situation, and Warsaw was exempted from the pact's obligations on that basis. Brussels weighed mainly the large number of Ukrainian refugees in Poland and the persistent pressure on the border with Belarus. According to RMF FM's source, little has changed since then: Ukrainian refugees remain in Poland, tensions on the Belarus border continue, and the assessment methodology is unchanged. TVP Info adds that the Commission is expected to factor in the costs of protecting the eastern border and the aid given to Ukrainian refugees. Citing Polskie Radio, TVP Info reports that the government in Warsaw keeps Brussels informed about the situation and the steps it takes. RMF FM also reports that Polish authorities had been passing all migration data to the Commission for weeks.

Timing and what comes next

The Commission's report analysing migration across member states is due by 4 November. RMF FM notes that the report is late, as it was last year. The deadline reportedly passed in mid-October, the Commission then pointed to 27 October, and the date now given is 4 November.

Member states formally take the decision on the exemption, but TVP Info describes their approval as a formality, since EU governments are unlikely to disagree with the Commission's view. The exemption is temporary: the Commission will make a new decision a year from now. A commentary on wPolityce.pl notes that 2027 is a year of parliamentary elections in Poland and questions whether the timing is a coincidence.