Rwanda emerges as the favourite

According to AFP, citing people familiar with the negotiations, Rwanda has become the clear favourite to host the first return centre that EU countries want to set up outside Europe. Germany, Denmark, Austria, Greece and the Netherlands are working toward an agreement with a third country by the end of 2026, which would allow a centre to open in 2027. Reports published on 20 October say the deal could be signed as early as November 2026. Officials have not publicly confirmed the location, and the Rwandan government had not responded to AFP's request for comment. Representatives of the five countries visited Kigali in September to discuss details, while a Rwandan delegation travelled to Europe in the weeks before 20 October and stopped in Brussels.

What the pilot would involve

The initial centre would take in about 100 people, with each of the five countries sending around 20, according to people familiar with the talks. The people targeted are migrants who have been refused the right to stay and cannot be returned to their countries of origin. The federal government's answer dated 7 October cites obstacles such as missing cooperation on passport procurement or identity verification, and says the goal is concrete steps by the end of the year. Asylum procedures would not take place in the third country, unlike in the abandoned British model, so the affected people would already be obliged to leave. A source close to the talks said the facility would not be a closed detention centre, and a diplomat said the process was progressing well but that the countries would say nothing about the timetable or the specific country. The European Commission takes part in the talks as an observer.

EU rules and criticism

In early October the EU Council gave its final approval to rules that make such centres possible, provided the third country has an agreement that meets international human rights standards. Unaccompanied minors are excluded from the scheme. Council of Europe Human Rights Commissioner Michael O'Flaherty warned of considerable risks and called for independent controls, binding safeguards and judicial review. Critics fear people would be left in limbo in third countries without a clear prospect. Emmanuel Macron criticised the concept at a summit in June, saying such centres are neither effective nor in line with EU values, and left-wing parties and NGOs have also been sharply critical.

Precedents and next steps

Britain's 2022 plan with Rwanda was abandoned by the government of Keir Starmer after numerous legal obstacles. Italy operates a comparable facility in Albania, whose legality is being challenged in court. Kigali confirmed in August that it had begun initial talks with some European countries. A migration conference in Vienna in mid-November could be the stage for a signing, observers speculated. If the talks succeed, the first deportees could arrive in 2027.

Open questions

No official announcement has named Rwanda, and Berlin does not confirm individual partner states. According to a source close to the talks, the facility could offer vocational training and Rwanda may prefer to call it a reception centre. Rwanda had not responded to the request for comment at the time of the AFP report. The next visible milestones are the Vienna conference in mid-November and the end-of-2026 target for an agreement.