EU leaders meet in Brussels on 15 October to split over 2028-2034 budget

The Irish compromise on the table

EU leaders meet in Brussels on 15 and 16 October to negotiate the bloc's budget for 2028 to 2034. The Irish presidency of the Council tabled a compromise on 10 October that puts the budget at about 1.62 trillion euros in 2025 prices, excluding expected inflation, according to official figures cited by Berliner Zeitung. That is 8% below the Commission's draft and roughly 30% above the current framework, while Neue Zürcher Zeitung gives a higher figure of around 1.8 trillion euros for the same proposal. The Commission had proposed roughly two trillion euros, and the European Parliament wants an overall volume about 10% above the Commission's. The proposed cuts total 141 billion euros in 2025 prices, which Politico puts at about 159 billion euros with inflation included.

Germany pushes for deeper cuts

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has spent months rallying frugal member states behind a smaller budget, and he has called the Irish proposal no basis for agreement. According to Die Welt, under current plans Germany would pay 58 billion euros a year into the EU budget, compared with 32 billion euros now.

N-tv reports that Germany and five other states insist on significant cuts, while Die Welt expects little beyond ceremony at the summit. In his government statement to the Bundestag on 14 October, Merz said the proposal had to be capped further in all areas and that aid to Ukraine does not come at the expense of social or education spending at home.

We must invest where Europe's future is decided: in our security and in our competitiveness.

CSU deputy leader Manfred Weber, who heads the EPP group in the European Parliament, also rejects cuts to the Commission plan.

France and the revenue question

The French presidential office said on 14 October that it is not currently foreseeable whether a long-term budget deal can come by December. Paris makes its support conditional on substantial new own resources for the EU, and an official who asked not to be named said the conditions would not be met without a sufficient volume of them. France belongs to a group that wants a larger budget and rejects cuts to agricultural and regional policy. Siegfried Mureșan, who co-leads the European Parliament's work on the multiannual financial framework, warned that delays and divisions in the Council are worrying and stressed the need for agreement.

The EU budget can only be built through compromise.

Trade tools and the wider agenda

Merz and Macron have proposed a "Kill Switch" that would let the Commission cut third countries off from the EU market where they prevent fair competition, without member-state consent. The Industrial Accelerator Act would tie public procurement and subsidies in steel, cement, aluminium and cars to "Made in EU" labelling and low-carbon requirements. VDMA chief executive Thilo Brodtmann said the Irish proposal, with less money for competitiveness programmes, heads in the wrong direction. On 14 October, 22 member organisations of the European Movement Germany, including the BDI, DGB and DOSB, urged a markedly more ambitious budget.

Year-end target under strain

Council President António Costa publicly keeps the target of agreeing the budget by the end of 2026, and the summit preview asks leaders to bring together the key elements by then. Politico reports that member states have weakened their commitment to that timetable. Elections in several member states in 2027, including France, add pressure, since the EU fears gains by eurosceptic parties could complicate an agreement. A deal this year would keep the negotiations out of those campaigns.