Michigan Senate primary tests AIPAC's influence as El-Sayed leads despite $50m opposition
Abdul El-Sayed holds a 10-point lead over Rep. Haley Stevens ahead of Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, despite being outspent 12-to-1 by pro-Israel groups including AIPAC, which has poured over $50 million into the race.
Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former public health official, holds a 10-point lead over four-term Representative Haley Stevens ahead of Tuesday's Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, according to recent public polls. The race has drawn national attention as a test of the influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has spent more than $50 million backing Stevens and attacking El-Sayed.
The race and the money
El-Sayed has been outspent 12-to-1, with AIPAC's super PAC alone pouring over $50 million into the contest. During a televised debate on Monday, El-Sayed highlighted the disparity within the first three minutes.
The difference between us is $46mn of AIPAC spending. They've set a record in this race to help elect my opponent because they know that she'll be a reliable vote.
Stevens responded that she was "beholden to the people of Michigan," but the exchange underscored how central the pro-Israel lobby has become in the primary. Polling conducted over the last month has shown El-Sayed leading, with one survey giving him a 10-point advantage.
- El-Sayed rallies with streamer Hasan Piker at two Michigan universities, drawing backlash.
- AIPAC's super PAC begins multi-million-dollar spending against El-Sayed.
- Final debate: El-Sayed cites $46 million in AIPAC spending backing Stevens.
- Primary election day.
AIPAC's role and the backlash
AIPAC's involvement has turned into a liability for Stevens among some voters. Criticism of the group has grown on both the left and the right, particularly since President Donald Trump launched a war against Iran in February. Joe Kent, who resigned as the administration's head of counterterrorism in March, said the U.S. entered hostilities "due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby."
In a New York City primary earlier this year, Democratic challenger Brad Lander successfully weaponized incumbent Dan Goldman's ties to AIPAC, helping him secure an edge. Lander, who has called Israel's campaign in Gaza a genocide, said voters are fed up with candidates who take money from special interests.
I really do think candidates that take money from Wall Street, and crypto, and AI and Aipac -- voters have had it with that.
El-Sayed's coalition and controversies
El-Sayed, who is of Egyptian descent and would be the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate, has built a coalition of young progressives and Arab Americans. In April, he campaigned with left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, whose past comments about the Oct. 7 attack and 9/11 drew sharp criticism. Stevens called the rallies "unacceptable," but El-Sayed defended the move as outreach to a critical demographic.
In Dearborn, a Detroit suburb known as the capital of Arab America, a Friday night rally at the Bint Jebail Cultural Center drew emotional support. Suehaila Amen, a local activist, described the community's pain over the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.
To say the community is hurting is really an understatement. Even in answering this question, I'm brought to tears because I lived there. This is my land too -- my ancestral homeland. People are feeling like they are disregarded, that their lives don't matter.
El-Sayed has also faced attack ads accusing him of sexism, citing his past critiques of Governor Gretchen Whitmer and former first lady Michelle Obama's initiative. His 8-year-old daughter even asked why people say he is mean to women.
Stevens' establishment backing
Stevens has the support of much of the Democratic establishment, including Whitmer, retiring Senator Gary Peters, former Senator Debbie Stabenow, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. Representative Jim Clyburn traveled to Detroit to campaign for her. Despite this, she has struggled to overcome El-Sayed's momentum. During the final debate, she took an unusual swipe at his popularity.
My opponent here, Abdul, he is such a talented guy. He's written three books, he's had 300 podcasts.
What's at stake
The primary outcome could influence control of the Senate and signal the direction of the Democratic Party on Israel. For El-Sayed's supporters, a victory would be a repudiation of AIPAC's spending power. Amen called the prospect "absolutely spectacular" and "historic." Polls will close on Tuesday, with the winner likely facing a competitive general election in the battleground state.
