Draconid meteor shower peaks Thursday night as solar storm may bring aurora to Poland

When and where to look

The Draconids are active from 6 to 10 October, with the maximum forecast for the night of 8 to 9 October. naTemat, citing the International Meteor Organization (IMO), puts the peak at about 3:00 Polish time, while The Independent gives a UK peak of around 2am BST on 9 October. Both sources favour the evening over the small hours, because the radiant (the point the meteors seem to come from) sits highest just after dusk and sinks as the night goes on. naTemat and Onet Wiadomości both recommend the window from 20:00 to 23:00 on Thursday, and The Independent says the best UK viewing starts at about 7pm. The radiant lies in the constellation Draco, between the Big and Little Dipper, so observers are told to look toward the north.

Weather and light

The Moon is close to new, and Onet Wiadomości reports that only 6 percent of its disc is lit and that it sets before dusk, so its glare should not drown out fainter meteors. Cloud cover is the main risk. A tvnmeteo.pl forecaster expects large and at times total cloud cover overnight, with rain of 2 to 7 litres per square metre and possible thunder over the sea and in the mountains. The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) forecasts moderate to large cloud cover, with rain of up to 10 millimetres, up to 15 millimetres in the east, south and along the coast, and up to 20 millimetres at the south-eastern edge. Sleet and snow are possible in the high mountains. In the UK, the Met Office expects significant cloud over southern parts of the country, with northern areas offering the best chances.

Viewing advice

Observers should move away from city lights, and naTemat points to dark-sky sites such as the Bieszczady Star Park, where agritourism has grown up around the sky. Expectations for the rate vary by source. The IMO expects about five meteors per hour on average, The Independent cites five to 10 per hour at the peak, and naTemat says ideal conditions could show at least 10. Royal Museums Greenwich, in a blog post on the shower, says that optical aids do not help.

There's no advantage to using binoculars or a telescope; just look up to take in the widest possible view of the sky.

Solar storm and possible aurora

A solar flare of class M1.4 erupted in active region AR4549, which sits almost directly facing Earth, and the same region has since produced an M1.8 flare. The NOAA model projects that the front of the plasma cloud will reach Earth on Friday around 05:00 UT, about 07:00 Warsaw time, with conditions for at least a weak geomagnetic storm in the afternoon. Under such conditions, aurora could be visible much further south than usual, and articles suggest it could reach Poland. Whether it does depends on the speed, direction and magnetic orientation of the plasma when it arrives, which cannot be predicted precisely. Another period of stronger solar wind is forecast for 11 October.

Why the shower is unpredictable

The Draconids come from fragments of comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, whose orbit crosses Earth's roughly every 6.6 years, according to naTemat and TVN24. NASA calls the shower an occasional one because its output varies sharply from year to year.

They are either in outburst, with a fair number of meteors, or are so few the casual observer would not notice them.

The Independent notes that the particles travel at about 40,000 mph, so an individual Draconid must be large to appear bright unless the shower is in outburst. The Orionids, which peak on the night of 21 to 22 October, are next, and TVN24 describes them as more active than the Draconids.