Refleks forecasts diesel at 8.05 zł/l as wholesale prices climb again

Pump prices fell, then wholesale costs rose

Average retail fuel prices in Poland dropped sharply in the first week of October. Between 1 and 8 October the average price of Pb95 petrol fell by 1.32 zł per litre and diesel by 1.42 zł per litre, according to Refleks. Autogas, which is not covered by the CPN package, rose 0.05 zł per litre over the same period. In a Friday analysis, Refleks analysts described the first part of October as bringing record weekly price cuts.

Wholesale prices then turned upward. Between 5 and 10 October the wholesale price of diesel rose by 22 gr per litre net and petrol by 17 gr per litre net, increases that will pass through to pump prices.

The first week of October unfortunately brings noticeable increases in wholesale fuel prices, resulting from the renewed rise in crude oil and petroleum product prices.

Forecast for next week and the maximum price

Refleks forecasts that the average Pb95 price will reach 6.99 zł per litre next week, 20 gr above the current level. Pb98 is expected at 7.89 zł per litre, also 20 gr higher, while diesel is forecast at 8.05 zł per litre, a 35 gr rise and the largest increase in the forecast. Autogas would climb 8 gr to 3.39 zł per litre. The maximum diesel price announced by the Minister of Energy is expected to rise to about 8.06 zł per litre this weekend, with Pb95 approaching 7 zł per litre. On Friday the minister published a new notice on maximum prices at filling stations.

Poland's price position and Middle East supply

Despite the announced increases, Refleks says average fuel prices in Poland remain the lowest among continental EU countries, with Malta the exception. In Malta the average Pb95 price converted into złoty is 5.87 zł per litre and diesel 5.30 zł per litre. Refleks points to restrictions on crude oil and diesel exports from the Middle East, as well as problems in Saudi Arabia that affect fuel deliveries to European buyers. Diesel exports from the Middle East to Europe fell to just 110 thousand bbl/d in September, 80% below February, before the war in the Middle East began.

Everything points to the situation not improving noticeably in October, which means prices stay higher on the physical crude and diesel market.

Why fuel stays expensive as Hormuz reopens

The Strait of Hormuz is open again, yet fuel prices remain practically unchanged. Donald Trump posted a chart on social media showing that oil volumes through the strait have returned to pre-war levels, when 20% of global oil trade passed through it. CNN reports average gasoline prices of 4.37 dollars per gallon, against 3.11 a year earlier, while diesel stands at 6.28 dollars against 3.68 in 2025.

Freight costs are another factor. Tanker captains can receive a base salary of 100,000 dollars plus a 50,000 dollar bonus for each transit of the strait. Other crew members, mainly from India, the Philippines and China, are offered rates up to four to six times higher than before the war, Al Jazeera reported, citing the Financial Times. CNN also points to Houthi rebel activity in the Red Sea and their war with Saudi Arabia, while restricted Russian production after Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries adds to price pressure.