Danube flow forecast to reach 1,550 m³/s as Cernavodă nuclear plant awaits cooling relief

Danube flow projections and hydrological deficits

The National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management (INHGA) projects that the flow rate of the Danube River at the Romanian entrance point of Baziaș will rise to 1,550 cubic meters per second by the end of August 2026. During the initial three days of the forecast interval spanning 22 to 29 August, water volume is expected to remain stationary at 1,300 cubic meters per second before beginning a gradual climb. This anticipated volume remains far below the multi-year average for August, which stands at 3,900 cubic meters per second. In its quarterly outlook, the hydrological institute established an August maximum threshold of 2,000 cubic meters per second alongside a minimum projection of 1,450 cubic meters per second. Downstream of the Iron Gates, water levels have fallen at Gruia, Bechet, and along the Hârșova to Tulcea sector, while remaining stationary at Calafat, Corabia, and Cernavodă.

Reservoir releases and dredging at Cernavodă

To address cooling constraints at the Cernavodă nuclear power plant, Romanian authorities and state utility Hidroelectrica initiated emergency water management measures. The Lower Danube River Administration and Apele Române deployed dredging operations directly in the Danube riverbed to channel available currents toward the nuclear facility's cooling intake. Simultaneously, water managers authorized controlled releases from storage reservoirs located along the Olt River. Hidroelectrica is contributing a supplementary average discharge of 50 cubic meters per second over a five-day span to bolster downstream river volume. State Secretary in the Ministry of Energy Sorin Elisei detailed the intervention taking place at the Izbiceni accumulation facility.

From the perspective of the Ministry of Energy, regarding what was outlined there for Hidroelectrica, we are currently ensuring an additional flow of 50 m³/s. From the reservoir, on the Izbiceni section of the Olt, water is already being discharged and turbined, and we are ensuring this additional flow.

Reactor status and restart outlook

The reactors at the Cernavodă nuclear plant were taken offline following severe drops in Danube water levels, which deprived the installation of necessary cooling volume. Despite the modest hydrological rebound expected along the Gruia to Călărași sector during the latter half of the forecast week, the Ministry of Energy determined that an operational restart remains unlikely before the end of August. Water authorities are coordinating continuous flow monitoring downstream of the Iron Gates to assess whether hydraulic pressures reach operational thresholds. Sector conditions between Turnu Măgurele and Giurgiu recorded slight increases, though stabilization across the Cernavodă cooling intake remains dependent on upstream catchment conditions.

Hydrological drought across inland river basins

Romania's internal river systems face widespread hydrological deficits throughout August 2026, with flow rates generally registering between 30% and 50% of historical monthly averages. Depleted conditions below 30% of multi-year averages affect the Crasna, Barcău, Crișul Repede, Crișul Negru, Crișul Alb, Bârlad, and Râmnicu Sărat basins, along with Dobrogea rivers, the upper Siret, and tributaries of the Prut. In contrast, higher volumes ranging from 50% to 80% of normal levels persist in the Prahova basin and the upper reaches of the Ialomița and Buzău rivers. The hydrological institute noted that localized heavy rainfall across Muntenia, Dobrogea, eastern Oltenia, and southern Moldavia could trigger flash floods, rapid torrents, and heavy runoff on mountain and hill slopes despite the overarching drought.