Giuseppe Conte leads Elly Schlein with 38% in Italian center-left primary poll

Primary poll results

A poll by Ipsos published on 19 September 2026 by pollster Nando Pagnoncelli in Corriere della Sera places Five Star Movement leader Giuseppe Conte ahead in a hypothetical primary for Italy's center-left coalition. When asked who they would vote for in a primary held tomorrow, 38% of coalition voters selected Conte, while 22% chose Democratic Party leader Elly Schlein. A further 20% opted for a third candidate, and 16% remained undecided or planned to cast a blank ballot.

In a head-to-head runoff scenario between the two leaders, Conte retains a lead with 43% of voter preferences (59% of valid votes). Schlein secures 30% of total preferences, translating to 41% of valid votes after excluding undecided respondents and blank ballots.

Cross-party voting patterns

Conte's polling advantage relies on support beyond his own party base. While Conte secures 78% of Five Star Movement voters, he also draws 54% of voters from Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra and 20% of Democratic Party voters. In contrast, Schlein receives the backing of 49% of Democratic Party voters, while 15% of Democrats prefer a third candidate and 13% are undecided. Centrist voters in the broader coalition align elsewhere, with 43% backing a third candidate and 23% choosing Conte.

Pollster Nando Pagnoncelli explained the dynamic behind Conte's broad support base across the coalition.

It is motivated by the fact that he obtains, in addition to the consensus of the vast majority of Five Star voters (78%), a majority vote on the left (54%), presumably motivated by pacifist orientations.

Candidate approval ratings

In terms of personal approval ratings among progressives who express an opinion, Genoa Mayor Silvia Salis ranks first with an index score of 56. Salis has repeatedly stated she will not run in coalition primaries. Conte follows closely with a rating of 55, while Schlein records a rating of 51.

Salis registers high approval among Democratic Party, Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra, and centrist voters, but faces criticism from Five Star Movement supporters. Schlein obtains a 77 rating among Democrats, yet nearly a quarter of her party views her negatively, and critical views prevail among Five Star Movement and centrist voters. Conte holds a 58 rating among Democrats alongside strong Five Star backing. Other potential contenders tested (Alessandro Onorato, Ernesto Maria Ruffini, and Vincenzo Spadafora) remain less known and register lower overall approval.

Coalition composition and foreign policy divisions

Voters surveyed expressed clear preferences regarding coalition membership, with 81% stating the Democratic Party should be included, 76% favoring Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra, 73% supporting the Five Star Movement, and 68% backing +Europa. In contrast, centrist formations Italia Viva and Azione recorded lower favorability, although 41% of respondents supported an enlarged alliance. Furthermore, one in three coalition voters preferred that party leadership negotiate an agreement directly instead of holding primary elections.

Foreign policy regarding the war in Ukraine remains a point of divergence within the alliance. Overall, 38% of coalition voters favor halting arms shipments to Kyiv in favor of diplomatic efforts, while 36% support continuing military aid, and just over a quarter remain undecided. Within the Democratic Party, 44% favor continuing military support compared to 33% opposed. Among Five Star Movement voters, 51% favor suspending arms shipments, while 41% of Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra voters oppose military shipments compared to 34% who support them.