Intelligence dossier warns of concrete Islamist terrorism risk at Ceuta as social media campaigns coordinate new migration wave
An intelligence dossier delivered to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's office warns that Islamist terrorism risk at the Spanish enclave of Ceuta is 'concrete,' as social media campaigns coordinate a new migration wave possibly targeting the enclave by August 15.
Intelligence dossier reaches Palazzo Chigi
An intelligence dossier has reached the office of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni at Palazzo Chigi warning that the risk of Islamist terrorism at the Spanish enclave of Ceuta is "concrete." The report, described by Corriere della Sera and citing shared information from Spanish intelligence services, states that behind the social media mobilization for a new migration wave lies a coordinated campaign. Italian services are monitoring word-of-mouth ahead of a potential new exodus that could occur by August 15. WhatsApp messages intercepted in monitored Facebook groups read: "Colpiamoli il giorno 10 e non l'11. Ci sono manifestazioni per il giorno 9" (Let's hit them on the 10th and not the 11th. There are demonstrations on the 9th).
The mobilization is reportedly fueled by TikTok users who share WhatsApp links to Facebook groups, with phone numbers originating from the United States, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, and Senegal. Intelligence assesses there is "a coordination for the campaign" that cannot yet be attributed to a specific actor. The groups are also used by "human traffickers."
Terrorism and radicalization concerns
The dossier flags the risk that Ceuta could become a center of "radicalization and jihadist recruitment." In the nearby Moroccan town of Fnideq, the area has frequently been the site of joint anti-terrorism operations by Spain and Morocco to dismantle cross-border jihadist networks. Madrid has reinforced its security deployment with a floating barrier of approximately 500 meters, two frigates, roughly 2,000 military personnel, and increased deployment of Guardia Civil and Policía Nacional. The Moroccan government has described the situation around Ceuta and Melilla as "stable."
Inside the organizing chats
Il Giornale reported infiltrating one of several WhatsApp chats where dozens of people, a number described as constantly increasing, are organizing entry into the Spanish enclave. Most profiles carry the Moroccan country code (+212), with one Italian number (+39), two Spanish (+34), and one German (+44). The group administrator, identified as "Whalid," has an obscured profile photo. The chat does not appear to be an organized group with a central direction; participants exchange advice on how to reach Ceuta while avoiding Moroccan controls.
A discussion within the chat referenced Melilla as an alternative target, with one user writing that the appointment for Melilla was "the 10th and not the 15th." Another user, Anas, suggested those wanting to go earlier should try Melilla, where "the boys of the Rif treat people well" and would welcome them "with water and flowers," while for Ceuta "on the 15th we will be many." The Melilla plan appeared to fade over time, as Spanish authorities never indicated a possible assault on the other enclave. Reference points for reaching Ceuta include Tangier, Larache, and Tétouan, with one user reporting that transport between Tangier and Tétouan had stopped and hitchhiking was necessary.
- Demonstrations mentioned in monitored WhatsApp chats as planned for this date
- Date cited in chat messages for possible action at Ceuta or Melilla ('Let's hit them on the 10th and not the 11th')
- Possible date for new mass exodus to Ceuta per intelligence monitoring; chat user says 'on the 15th we will be many at Ceuta'
Political dimension in Rome
El Pais reported that Meloni is using the Ceuta crisis to counter eroding political support at home. The Spanish newspaper wrote that after enjoying stability rarely seen in Italian politics for much of her mandate, cracks have emerged in recent months, threatening to complicate the final phase of her term, which ends in 2027. While Meloni maintains a comfortable lead in polls, recent setbacks and growing tensions within her coalition point to a more difficult autumn.
The rise of retired General Roberto Vannacci and his new party, Futuro Nazionale, was cited as a factor threatening to draw support away from Meloni on the right. Vannacci has attacked Meloni on immigration, security, and national identity, arguing that those who came to power promising a hard line have significantly softened their positions. El Pais wrote that Meloni has seized the opportunity to promote her approach in Europe, presenting the massive influx of migrants from Morocco to Ceuta as a warning about what could happen in other European countries if policies against irregular entry are not tightened.
