Swedish Centre-Left Takes Lead in Election Exit Polls as Sweden Democrats Slip to 17.2%

Exit poll results and parliamentary projections

According to exit polls released by public broadcaster SVT on Sunday evening, Sweden's centre-left opposition coalition has secured 51.3% of the vote. The governing centre-right bloc, composed of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's Moderate Party, the Liberals, and the Sweden Democrats, took 46.8% of voter support. Projections compiled by SVT and Valu allocate 183 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag to the centre-left alliance, compared to 166 seats for the incumbent government and its allies. The outcome points toward a potential change of majority in Stockholm after four years of conservative governance. Voting concluded across the country following a day marked by voter participation that produced queues of up to four hours at multiple polling stations.

Breakdown across party lines

The Social Democrats maintained their standing as the largest single party in the country, capturing 28.4% of the vote despite dropping 1.9 percentage points compared to the 2022 election. The Moderates took second place with 18.1%, losing 1.0 percentage point relative to their previous result. The right-wing Sweden Democrats, led by Jimmie Åkesson, secured 17.2% of the vote, representing a drop of 3.3 percentage points from their 20.5% result in 2022 and dropping to third place overall. While all three leading national parties lost ground compared to the previous election, smaller centre-left parties registered gains. The Green Party climbed to 7.4% (an increase of 2.3 percentage points), the Left Party reached 8.0% (up 1.2 percentage points), and the Centre Party obtained 7.5% (up 0.8 percentage points).

Reactions and campaign disputes

At the Social Democratic headquarters in Stockholm, party members cheered when television screens displayed the retreat of the Sweden Democrats. Pre-election surveys had indicated that the Sweden Democrats could reach around 19% and potentially overtake the Moderates within the conservative bloc, but the exit polls contradicted those projections. The Sweden Democrats, who first entered the Riksdag in 2010, had campaigned to enter the cabinet directly rather than continuing their previous arrangement as an external confidence-and-supply partner. After voting in Nacka, former prime minister Magdalena Andersson told reporters that direct meetings with voters had been enjoyable, but characterized the broader race as a dirty campaign marked by falsehoods. Andersson condemned the rhetoric of the Sweden Democrats, who accused opponents of being traitors to the homeland, pointing to threats received by Gothenburg Mayor Jonas Attenius during the election period.

Coalition talks and policy challenges

If the exit poll figures are confirmed by the official count, Andersson will initiate formal consultations to assemble a governing majority. Constructing an executive will require managing friction between the Centre Party and the Left Party, two political forces that disagree on tax policy and economic governance. The campaign focused heavily on crime and immigration, alongside voter concerns regarding economic pressures and the potential restructuring of social welfare programs. The parties within the centre-left also hold contrasting views regarding climate policies, taxation reforms, and the future role of nuclear power. Andersson, who previously served as finance minister and became Sweden's first female prime minister in 2021, noted that she could explore parliamentary abstentions or seek support across bloc lines to ensure stable governance.