Canada formally asks US and Mexico to extend North American trade pact by 16 years ahead of July deadline

The formal request

Canada officially notified the United States and Mexico on Tuesday of its desire to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) for another 16 years. Dominic LeBlanc, Canada's minister for U.S. trade, sent a letter dated June 1 to United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Mexico's Secretary of Economy Marcelo Ebrard conveying Ottawa's recommendation. LeBlanc and Canada's Chief Trade Negotiator Janice Charette were in Washington on Tuesday for a meeting with Greer, which Canadian officials described as lengthy and positive.

The Agreement is highly beneficial to each of our countries and to the integrated North American economy.

The letter comes ahead of the scheduled July 1 review of the USMCA, the latest iteration of a North American free-trade pact that has intertwined the economies of the three nations since the early 1990s. The agreement, which entered into force in 2020, requires the three signatories to notify by July 1 whether they wish to review or withdraw from the pact. If all three countries agree to renew it before that date, the pact extends automatically for another 16 years. Otherwise, a period of annual reviews begins for a decade before possible expiration.

Mexico backs the extension

Mexico supported the Canadian proposal. In a letter also dated June 1 and signed by Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, Mexico stated its position is to extend the treaty by 16 more years and seek agreements that benefit all three nations in mutual respect and consensus. Mexico noted the treaty provides economic stability, legal certainty, and has been a driver for attracting foreign direct investment. Mexico had already begun an official round of negotiations with the United States on May 27, without notable progress so far.

Trump's pressure and the 51st state rhetoric

The diplomatic push coincides with renewed provocations from President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump posted "51st State!" on his Truth Social platform, linking to a news article reporting that Canada is falling into a technical recession. The post was later reposted by U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra. Trump has repeatedly said the agreement brings few benefits to the United States and has called it "irrelevant," despite having signed and praised the USMCA during his first term. His administration has signaled over the past year and a half that it does not want a simple automatic renewal and seeks significant modifications.

I can't believe I have to say this again, but Canada will never be the 51st state. Canada is not for sale.

Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged some weakness in the Canadian economy as he walked into Cabinet on Tuesday. Carney said the U.S. has about 30 different trade irritants with Canada compared to nearly 60 with Mexico. Asked whether Ambassador Hoekstra should leave the country, Carney declined, stating the administration is one Canada must work with given the scale of the trading and security relationship. He added that his government would not respond to everything Trump posts on social media.

What happens next

The U.S. could withdraw from the agreement with six months' notice, or the pact could move to annual reviews, or it can be renewed for another 16 years. LeBlanc has previously warned the free trade agreement could be subject to annual reviews and that uncertainty could be the objective of the Trump administration. Carney noted there is a possibility of a new partnership. The USMCA has allowed Canada and Mexico to avoid much of Trump's protectionist measures because many goods are covered by the agreement, though specific tariffs on aluminum and other products remain damaging to the integrated North American economy.