Mark Carney confirms Canada evaluated contingency plans for US military action

Evaluation of US military intervention as an extreme tail risk

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed that his administration examined the possibility of United States military action against Canada, characterizing the contingency as an extreme tail risk. In an interview published by The New York Times, the former central bank governor stated that preparing for low-probability events with severe outcomes represents fundamental risk management for national leaders. Carney declined to elaborate on specific operational preparations but stated that failing to consider such scenarios would be irresponsible for his government. The acknowledgment follows reporting that the Canadian Armed Forces drafted a theoretical defense model in January, representing the first such planning exercise in approximately a century. That internal military model projected that Canada would lose its primary maritime and territorial positions within days against superior American forces, forcing a transition to irregular warfare involving ambushes, drone strikes, sabotage, and small units of armed personnel.

I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk. That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to prepare.

Conventional military disparities and procurement reviews

The assessment reflects substantial structural imbalances between the armed forces of the two neighboring allies. Government records indicate that the United States military commands more than two million active-duty and reserve personnel, while Canada maintains fewer than 200,000 troops across its forces. A comparable disparity exists in naval assets, with the United States operating 65 military submarines in 2024 compared to four maintained by Canada. Because Canada possesses the longest coastline in the world and borders the strategically sensitive Arctic region, Carney prioritized increases in national defense spending after taking office. In parallel with defense budget growth, Ottawa initiated steps to decrease its technological and operational reliance on American suppliers. Canadian authorities are reviewing a planned procurement of F-35 fighter aircraft from Lockheed Martin and evaluating alternative communications infrastructure to reduce dependence on the Starlink satellite network operated by SpaceX.

Annexation rhetoric and trade negotiation collapse

Bilateral diplomatic relations deteriorated following repeated statements from US President Donald Trump regarding the political absorption of Canada. In January 2025, Trump explicitly excluded the direct use of military force to annex Canada, but introduced the concept of economic coercion to apply political pressure on Ottawa. By February 2025, Trump publicly posted that Canada should become the 51st American state to receive tax reductions and defense coverage without tariffs. Economic frictions culminated on 21 August 2026, when Canada suspended bilateral trade discussions after rejecting terms that Carney described as an unfair agreement pushed by the White House. Both governments subsequently implemented reciprocal tariffs across a broad range of manufactured goods and commodities, worsening the bilateral trade dispute.

Bilateral communication and conditions for future talks

Despite the breakdown in formal trade negotiations and heightened defense planning, Carney affirmed that direct contact between Ottawa and Washington remains active. The Canadian Prime Minister stated that he and Trump speak frequently by telephone, describing their discussions as direct and efficient. In early September, Carney indicated that Canada remains open to resuming bilateral trade negotiations if Washington commits to a serious and respectful negotiating framework. Carney maintained that returning to stable, long-term commercial ties remains beneficial for the economies of both North American partners.

From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues. He's direct. I'm direct in terms of where positions are. It's much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist.