Xavier Becerra and Steve Hilton clash in California debate as poll shows 25-point lead

Gubernatorial debate in Sacramento

Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra and Republican candidate Steve Hilton met on Wednesday in Sacramento for the California gubernatorial debate broadcast by CNN. The televised event is expected to be the sole debate between the two candidates before the general election in November. Becerra, who previously served as the federal health secretary under the Biden administration and as California attorney general, entered the debate as the heavy favorite. Hilton, a former Fox News host endorsed by Donald Trump, sought to challenge the Democratic frontrunner across a range of state issues.

Becerra used the stage to position himself as a primary opponent of the Trump administration, linking Hilton directly to the Republican president. The Democratic nominee also sought to present himself to voters across the state and the country as the prospective leader of the most populous state in the United States. If elected in November, Becerra would become California's first elected Latino governor.

Campaign clashes over state governance

Hilton focused his arguments on criticizing California's Democratic establishment, describing the state's governance in campaign advertisements as "The Machine." During the opening exchanges of the event, Hilton addressed Becerra's comparatively limited campaign appearances.

Thank you to CNN for bringing Xavier back out of hiding.

Hilton is attempting to become the first Republican elected to the governor's office in California since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011. While Hilton sought to turn the debate into a referendum on one-party rule and state conditions, Becerra leaned on his experience in state and federal administration.

Polling margins and unaffiliated voters

The debate followed polling that showed Becerra building a wide lead across California. Every survey conducted since the open primary in June has placed Becerra ahead of Hilton by more than 15 percentage points. In the June primary contest, Becerra placed first, finishing three percentage points ahead of Hilton before the field consolidated.

A survey conducted by the University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and sponsored by The Los Angeles Times found Becerra leading Hilton by 25 percentage points overall. The 25-point margin represents Becerra's largest lead of the current election cycle, following a seven-point increase from the Berkeley institute's findings in early August. Both candidates maintained strong consolidation within their respective political bases, with each drawing 90 percent or higher support from their own parties.

The survey showed that Becerra's expansion was driven largely by voters not registered with a political party. Among unaffiliated voters, Becerra received 56 percent support compared to 30 percent for Hilton. Most recent polls in the race indicate that approximately 10 percent of voters remain undecided.

Favorability and historical margins

The Berkeley survey indicated that Becerra led Hilton across all measured age, racial, and educational demographics in the state. In favorability metrics, 48 percent of likely voters viewed Becerra favorably, while 40 percent viewed him unfavorably. In contrast, 35 percent of likely voters held a favorable view of Hilton, compared to 51 percent who viewed him unfavorably.

The current margins align closely with recent gubernatorial election results in California rather than reflecting broader national polling trends on generic congressional ballots. Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom secured victory by 23 percentage points in 2018 and won reelection by 18 percentage points in 2022. Both candidates now head into the final weeks of campaigning ahead of the November vote.