Neil Bush breaks with the GOP

Neil Bush, a lifelong Republican and brother of former President George W. Bush, said on Tuesday, 20 October, that he had already voted early for Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the contest for the open Texas Senate seat. He posted the choice on Facebook as early voting got underway. Bush, who is 71, is a son of former President George H.W. Bush, and his family has deep ties to Texas Republicans, with their father having served as a two-term Republican congressman from Texas.

Bush said his objection to Paxton centred on the attorney general's conduct, in particular Paxton's push to challenge the 2020 presidential results in other states to keep Donald Trump in office. He went on:

“I believe that effort was an affront to our democratic institutions and the peaceful transfer of power.”

Bush also cited the 2023 impeachment of Paxton by the Texas House, which was followed by an acquittal in the state Senate. He said Trump and those who enabled him had done enormous damage to the Republican Party. He described Talarico as "a principled, pragmatic leader" and praised his willingness to listen to people he disagreed with.

Other Republicans cross over

Wayne Thorburn, previously the executive director of the Republican Party of Texas, told the Texas Tribune that he cast ballots for Gov. Greg Abbott and other GOP candidates but could not support Paxton. He said he would have voted for Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the primary runoff to Paxton in May. Thorburn framed his reasoning around character:

“Like so many people, I think I'm looking at the character aspects of this race.”

Thorburn said he had never met Talarico but judged him from what he had seen and read. The Bush family's involvement extends beyond the two men. Campaign finance records show Barbara Bush, a daughter of George W. Bush, reportedly gave $2,500 to a political action committee that supports Talarico. Critics may dismiss the endorsements as sour grapes, since Paxton had beaten George P. Bush, a nephew of Neil Bush, in a primary.

The race ahead of 3 November

Paxton beat Sen. John Cornyn in the primary runoff in May, and he has struggled to unite Republicans since. Talarico has pointed to a securities fraud indictment against Paxton and to the 2023 impeachment. A judge dismissed the fraud case after Paxton completed a pretrial diversion program without admitting guilt, and the state Senate acquitted him after his impeachment. Paxton has responded by pointing to Talarico's earlier advocacy of cutting meat consumption and emissions to address climate change. Opinion polls show the two candidates neck and neck before the 3 November midterm elections, which will decide control of Congress. No Democrat has won a Texas Senate seat since 1988, and Trump has backed Paxton's campaign.