Burnham promises welfare bill cut 'as soon as we possibly can' but no pre-election deadline

Budget forecast and the cost warning

The Budget on Wednesday, 28 October, forecast welfare spending climbing from £353bn in 2026 to £431bn in 2031/32, and opponents said the document offered little detail on how reform would work. The Office for Budget Responsibility warned that sickness and disability benefits could cost £100 billion a year before the end of the decade. The Conservatives accused Labour of being "addicted to welfare", while Chancellor John Healey faced repeated questions from broadcasters about the rising bill. That pressure pushed the government to explain its plans in the days that followed.

2026353

2031/32431

2026

353 £bn

2031/32

431 £bn

Data from the article text

Burnham's answer on timing

Prime Minister Andy Burnham was asked about his timeframe during a visit to Derby on Thursday, 29 October, and he said the government was pressing hard to bring the bill down. He warned against "crude cuts" and said the aim was to move people into sustainable jobs. Asked whether a cut would arrive before the next election, which must be held by August 2029, he stopped short of a guarantee. He described the forthcoming Milburn report as the next big priority and said there was no delay on that front.

“We want to get the welfare bill down as quickly as possible, and we're working flat out to that end.”

Healey's remarks and the Treasury response

Healey told the BBC's Today programme that there would be a reduction in the benefits bill, to be carried out "in a Labour way". Treasury sources then disputed reading this as a promise to cut the bill before polling day. Healey also told LBC Radio that welfare reform would not mean "crude benefit cuts", which he described as a "pressure too far" while people were struggling with living costs. Downing Street said the chancellor remained in line with the prime minister and that the government was not setting "an arbitrary target or timetable". The prime minister's official spokesman declined to say whether the ambition meant spending below its current level or simply a slower rise than projected.

Two reviews due in November

Further details are expected after two reviews are published in November. One is a review of disability benefits co-chaired by Labour minister Sir Stephen Timms. The other examines young people not in education, employment or training, and is led by former minister Alan Milburn. Both reviews were announced by former Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer after his plan to tighten eligibility for some health-related benefits triggered a revolt of Labour MPs and a climbdown in June 2025. Burnham has placed the Milburn report at the top of his list of priorities.

Key dates ahead

The sequence starts with the June 2025 climbdown on Starmer's welfare changes. The Budget followed on Wednesday, 28 October, with its welfare forecast, and Burnham spoke in Derby on Thursday, 29 October. Healey's broadcast comments and the Treasury's response both fell within the same week. The two reviews are expected in November, and the next general election must be held by August 2029.