Brent falls below $100 as Democrats' midterm win raises pressure to end Iran war

Democratic sweep pushes oil below $100

Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, 4 November, a day after Democrats won control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in midterm elections held on Tuesday, 3 November. Brent crude, the international benchmark, slipped below $100 a barrel for the first time since early October, trading at 98.76 dollars around 17:05 Paris time, down 4.67%. At that moment West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, stood at 91.73 dollars. Later in the session the Financial Times reported Brent at $94.60, down 8.7%, its lowest level in two months. Brent had already shed more than 13% since the start of the week, according to BFMTV.

Brent (January delivery)98.76

WTI (December delivery)91.73

Brent (January delivery)

98.76 $/bbl

WTI (December delivery)

91.73 $/bbl

Data from the article text

Congress and the Iran war

Analysts argued the outcome could narrow Donald Trump's room to keep fighting in Iran. Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote said the new Congress, which takes office in January, could use its spending power to challenge extra military funding and press harder for diplomacy. Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC, said traders were acting first and asking questions later after unexpected election results. Seb Barker, chief market strategist at Marshall Wace, said the market expected lawmakers to start checking the war.

“The market is saying that Congress and members of his own administration are likely to start acting as a constraint on President Trump's war in Iran.”

Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, argued that the White House kept its powers over strikes, blockades and sanctions, but that using them now carried a higher political price.

“A Democratic sweep changes the political cost of continuing the Iran war.”

Vance and Trump weigh in

JD Vance blamed the war for the Republican defeat. In a social media post, he wrote that pollsters found the most common answer from Republican voters who had backed Democrats was a demand to "end the war". He added:

“[The] real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.”

On Tuesday, Trump told the Financial Times that Washington was not planning any imminent attack on Iran. Joel Hancock, a senior commodities analyst at Natixis Bank, said Trump's recent comments on Iran had been conciliatory, showing little urgency about an attack. Trump also told the Wall Street Journal that Iran had been part of the reason for the Republican losses, but he pointed to higher fuel prices rather than the war itself.

Diplomacy and Gulf supply

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a written statement that US hostility would continue whichever party held power in Washington. Qatar stepped up mediation to head off a wider escalation after the vote. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Tuesday that the two sides remained well short of an agreement. Yemen's Houthis said they had targeted King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, though Saudi authorities did not confirm the attack. Vortexa ship-tracking data put Gulf exports of crude, condensate and refined products, excluding LPG, at 17.1 million barrels a day in October, down from 18.9 million in September and still around three-quarters of pre-war levels.

European shares follow

In Brussels the Bel 20 rose 2.42% to a new closing high of 5,979.01 points, after touching 5,984.99 intraday and passing the 5,905.83 peak of 28 August. Umicore was the strongest performer with a 6.25% gain to 18.87 euros. Solvay climbed 3.75% to 24.34 euros after publishing final third-quarter figures that confirmed weaker results it had flagged earlier: revenue of 1.03 billion euros, down 3.3% year on year, and Ebitda down 26.6% to 173 million euros. UCB, the pharmaceutical group, added 2.28% to 282.80 euros while using AI from Dutch company Cradle to speed antibody development for several diseases.