Flávio Bolsonaro launches presidential bid with Milei's backing, trailing Lula 48-43 in Datafolha poll

The convention

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, officially became the Liberal Party's nominee at the Pacaembú stadium in São Paulo on Saturday. Over a thousand supporters, many wearing Brazil national team jerseys, chanted "Lula thief" as he took the stage. Party president Valdemar Costa Neto presented him as the political heir of his imprisoned father, Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year house arrest for a 2022 coup attempt.

Flávio was chosen by his father to continue the project that already worked. You are the candidate in the name of the country and millions of Brazilians, may God illuminate your path.

Flávio described himself as "more tranquil and moderate" but asserted he carries "Bolsonaro blood." He promised to rescue Brazil from what he called a government that could turn into a dictatorship if Lula wins a fourth term. An AI-generated video from Jair Bolsonaro was played due to campaign restrictions, and Flávio said his father would "climb the ramp of Planalto Palace" with him in January 2027 if he wins.

Milei's intervention

Argentine President Javier Milei flew to São Paulo to lend his support. He framed the October election as a showdown with socialism, urging the crowd to back the candidate and warning Brazil of disaster if it does not change course.

Brazil has not yet lived the most disastrous consequences of this model, but it could if it cannot turn the helm. We trust you, Flávio, to stop the socialist garbage!

The appearance reinforced the alliance of far-right leaders in South America, with Milei seeking to bolster a like-minded figure in the region's largest democracy.

Scandal and family turmoil

Flávio's campaign has been buffeted by crises. In May, Intercept Brasil published an audio message showing he had asked banker Daniel Vorcaro, later arrested for massive financial fraud, for money to fund a film about his jailed father. On Thursday, 23 July, a Supreme Court judge ordered an investigation into the film's financing. Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing and any "intimacy" with Vorcaro.

Tensions also erupted with his stepmother Michelle Bolsonaro. In June she complained publicly of humiliation, claiming Flávio told her she "understands nothing about politics." The former first lady, crucial for attracting female and evangelical voters, forgave him Thursday in a choreographed reconciliation after new apologies. The same day, the court ordered the probe into the film funds.

Poll slide

A Datafolha survey released on Friday, 24 July, shows Lula leading Flávio by 48% to 43% in a second-round scenario. Bolsonaro had tied Lula in March after eating into a 15-point deficit, but his numbers have since declined. Marco Teixeira, a political scientist at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, traced the slump to rising rejection and the accumulating scandals.

It is a moment of weakening for Flávio,... there is uncertainty about the viability of his candidacy because the rejection of his figure has increased.

Electoral path

Flávio is running to free his father and brother Eduardo, who is self-exiled in the United States and was also convicted this year. He faces Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, who seeks a fourth non-consecutive term and tops the polls. The senator must unite a fragmented conservative base and overcome high rejection rates in the months remaining before the October vote. Flávio told supporters that Brazil is "in a pilotless plane" and only his candidacy can bring change.