Belgian budget talks go down to the wire as De Wever tries to avoid provisional twelfths

Bilateral talks replace a budget kern

Prime Minister Bart De Wever will not chair the restricted ministerial committee (kern) on the budget on Saturday, 31 October, Belga reported from government sources. Instead, he is set to hold bilateral contacts that evening, first with Vincent Van Peteghem (CD&V) and then with Maxime Prévot (Les Engagés). A meeting with Frank Vandenbroucke (Vooruit) could follow later that night. De Wever will continue the negotiations on Sunday, and Le Soir reports that a new kern is hoped for after the weekend.

The previous kern session began at 14:00 on Thursday, 29 October, and ended around 20:00 with no breakthrough reported. Ministers planned to go through the proposed measures theme by theme over the following three days, with healthcare on the table. A breakthrough was not expected before the weekend.

A deadline and the twelfths scenario

The coalition has to find about 10 billion euros by 2029 to keep Belgium within European budgetary rules. If no agreement is reached in time, the 2027 budget will not be voted in parliament this year, and an emergency budget based on provisional twelfths will follow. De Wever wants to avoid that outcome. According to him, a credible budget would also reassure financial markets, which help determine the interest rates Belgium pays on its borrowing.

Sticking points: sick pay, management companies and VAT

Political scientist Nicolas Bouteca of Ghent University (UGent) told VRT NWS that several very difficult dossiers remain on the table, and that Vooruit, the only left-wing party in the coalition, is now pushing hard. Vooruit has problems with a proposal to end sickness benefits for people with burn-out or depression after two years, and it wants the strongest shoulders to contribute more. To do so, it is looking at management companies, which it wants to make less attractive. That move touches the electoral core of N-VA, which Bouteca described as having grown into an entrepreneurs' party.

Bouteca also said the other parties have seen the MR succeed by blocking proposals. A general VAT increase from 21 to 22 per cent is probably off the table after a veto by MR party chairman Georges-Louis Bouchez. Bouteca added that De Wever now regrets the concessions made to the MR, and he cited economists who consider a VAT increase the least harmful tax.

Bouteca put the stakes simply and said he is less convinced than a few weeks ago that a deal will still be reached.

“Failure is not an option.”

What comes next

Bouteca called the night of Monday 2 to Tuesday 3 November the money time for De Wever. Whether a deal lands in that window or the budget slides into the twelfths system will depend on how the remaining dossiers are settled over the coming days.