AOK Bayern data: individual dementia risk falls 16% as total patient numbers climb toward 380,000 by 2040

Declining individual risk, rising total numbers

New data from the health insurance fund AOK Bayern shows that the individual risk of developing dementia in Bavaria has decreased. The share of people with dementia fell from 3.8 percent in 2015 to 3.2 percent in 2024, a drop of nearly 16 percent. However, the total number of patients continues to grow because higher life expectancy and large birth cohorts are reaching older age. Andreas Nagel, a statistician at AOK Bayern, told the German Press Agency in Munich that the overall number of people entering the risk group keeps growing due to demographic shifts. The data was extrapolated from AOK insurance records to represent the population of Bavaria.

What we see for Bavaria is that the share of those affected increases with age. That is logical, dementia is a disease of old age and advanced old age.

Age and gender breakdown

The data shows that dementia prevalence rises sharply with age. Among those aged 65 to 74, 1.5 percent of women and 1.8 percent of men had dementia in 2024, down from 2.4 percent and 2.8 percent respectively in 2015. In the over-75 group, the rates were 13.3 percent for women and 11.5 percent for men, compared with 16.3 percent and 13.0 percent in 2015. Nagel attributed the higher rate among older women to their longer life expectancy, which increases the likelihood of developing the condition. Dementia itself is not a single disease but a pattern of symptoms with various causes, with Alzheimer's being the most common form. The condition leads to a deterioration of various mental abilities compared to a person's previous state.

Projections and political response

Bavaria's Health Minister Judith Gerlach said more than 270,000 people with dementia currently live in Bavaria. Experts project approximately 300,000 by 2030 and 380,000 by 2040.

We as a society must be prepared for this.

Gerlach announced the Bavarian Dementia Week, scheduled for September 18 to 27, as a platform to address the implications for those affected, their relatives, and the social environment.

With the Dementia Week we want to raise awareness for the topic of dementia, reduce prejudices and show concrete support options for those affected and their relatives.

Last year, clubs, municipalities, facilities, initiatives, and individuals organized 1,700 events. For this year, around 1,900 registrations have already been received. The offerings range from information events and cultural programs to workshops, open days, and dementia-sensitive church services.

Prevention and associated conditions

Silke Recksiek of AOK Bayern described dementia as one of the great health challenges of our time given the aging population. She stressed that small, regular steps in daily life can help gain healthy life years.

Regular exercise, good management of cardiovascular risk factors, social contacts and mental activity can help gain more healthy years of life.

The AOK identified several conditions associated with a higher dementia risk, including depression, high blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, obesity, coronary heart disease, and heart failure. Recksiek noted that it does not require large changes, and that small, regular steps can be well integrated into daily life.