Football · London
Twelve Polymarket accounts won almost $200,000 on Ballon d'Or top five, France Football investigates
Twelve Polymarket accounts correctly predicted the exact top five of the 2026 Ballon d'Or, prompting an internal inquiry at France Football and a referral to French police.
AI text based on reports by SAPO, Notícias ao Minuto, Mediafax.ro and other publishers. Published . How it is made
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In brief
Twelve Polymarket accounts placed more than $264,000 on the top five order before the ceremony on Monday, 26 October, and generated almost $200,000 in winnings.
The accounts predicted Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi in the order the journalists' vote produced, with bets placed between 1 and 20 October.
Seven of the 12 accounts had never bet on another market, and six placed their first bet 15 minutes after creation. All were created between 1 and 20 October.
Upside, led by Raphaël Pautard, traced one blockchain transaction to a French financial platform, which reportedly identified the person behind one funding account. That person has not been named.
Groupe Amaury confirmed an internal inquiry on Friday, 30 October, and the organisers contacted French police.
- 1 OctCreation window opens for the 12 Polymarket accounts
- 20 OctBets and account creation window end, with bets placed between 1 and 20 October
- 26 OctLondon Palladium ceremony, Harry Kane wins ahead of Mbappé, Yamal, Rodri and Messi
- 30 OctFrance Football confirms an internal investigation and contacts French police
The bets
Twelve accounts on Polymarket, a US prediction market built on cryptocurrency, placed more than $264,000 on the 2026 Ballon d'Or before the ceremony on Monday, 26 October. The bets picked the top five finishers in the exact order they finished: Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi. The accounts placed their bets between 1 and 20 October, and the total stake covered only that one outcome. Figures for the winnings differ slightly between reports, from almost $200,000 to more than that amount. Their accuracy has raised suspicions of a leak of confidential results before the award was handed out.
How the accounts were linked
The investigation by the French financial news site Upside, led by co-founder Raphaël Pautard, found that the 12 accounts were created between 1 and 20 October and showed strikingly similar patterns of activity. Seven of them had never placed bets on any other market on the platform, and six placed their first bet just 15 minutes after being created. Investigators consider it possible that one person or one group controls all twelve accounts. One account reportedly bought a contract on Kane winning at 37 cents, sold it when the price reached 67 cents, and moved the proceeds onto bets on players who finished further down. Upside also traced one transaction on the blockchain to a French financial platform, which reportedly identified the person behind one of the accounts that funded the bets. That person's identity has not been made public.
France Football's response
Upside passed its findings to France Football, which is owned by Groupe Amaury and has run the award since 1956 in partnership with UEFA. On Friday, 30 October, the organisers confirmed that an internal investigation had been opened, and they contacted French police. France Football has said that before each ceremony only a very small group of people knows the winner in advance, which makes a possible leak more serious. Former editor-in-chief Pascal Ferré has argued that a winner's secret can only be kept when as few people as possible know it.
The result
Harry Kane was crowned at the London Palladium with 1,055 points, 28 points ahead of Kylian Mbappé on 1,027. Lamine Yamal finished third with 881 points, Rodri fourth with 726 and Lionel Messi fifth with 612. Kane plays for Bayern Munich, Mbappé for Real Madrid, Yamal and Rodri for Barcelona and Messi for Inter Miami. The ranking came from the votes of journalists, and the accounts had predicted that exact order before the result was announced.
- Harry Kane
- 1055 points
- Kylian Mbappé
- 1027 points
- Lamine Yamal
- 881 points
- Rodri
- 726 points
- Lionel Messi
- 612 points
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Sources and context
- SAPOInvestigation into Ballon d'Or bets: they guessed the top-5 order and made thousands in profitInvestigação a apostas sobre a Bola de Ouro: acertaram ordem do top-5 e lucraram milhares · original in Portuguese
- Notícias ao MinutoBetting scandal puts Ballon d'Or under police investigationEscândalo de apostas coloca Bola de Ouro sob investigação policial · original in Portuguese
- Mediafax.roInvestigation at the 2026 Ballon d'Or. Earnings of almost 200,000 dollars from suspicious betsAnchetă la Balonul de Aur 2026. Câștiguri de aproape 200.000 de dolari din pariuri suspecte · original in Romanian
- FanpageA mole in the Ballon d'Or, strong suspicions after winning bets on the exact final rankingUna talpa nel Pallone d'Oro, forti sospetti dopo le scommesse vincenti sull'esatta classifica finale · original in Italian
- Harry Kane
- Bayern Munich forward who won the 2026 Ballon d'Or with 1,055 points
- Kylian Mbappé
- Real Madrid forward who finished second with 1,027 points
- Lamine Yamal
- Barcelona player who finished third with 881 points
- Rodri
- Barcelona player who finished fourth with 726 points
- Lionel Messi
- Inter Miami player who finished fifth with 612 points
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