AUR leads Romanian parliamentary poll at 39.7% as PSD retakes second place

INSCOP survey findings

The 14th edition of the INSCOP Research barometer, conducted between 1 and 7 September 2026, places the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) at 39.7% of voter intentions among citizens expressing a preference. Those expressing a preference represent 70.6% of the total sample. The party led by George Simion maintains a lead of roughly 20 percentage points over its nearest competitors, rising from 38.2% in May 2026. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) ranks second with 18.7%, recovering from 17.5% in May. The National Liberal Party (PNL) dropped to third place at 16.3%, down from 20.3% recorded in May. The Save Romania Union (USR) stands in fourth position with 9%, declining from 10% in May.

Crisis impact on governing parties

The polling results follow four months of political crisis after the government led by Ilie Bolojan was dismissed through a no-confidence motion supported by PSD and AUR. The combined vote share of the former governing coalition parties (PSD, PNL, and USR) stands at 44%, barely exceeding the total held by AUR alone. Social Democrats reclaimed second place from PNL, which held that spot in May for the first time in six years. INSCOP Research director Remus Ștefureac addressed the toll that ongoing government gridlock has taken on the established parties.

The excessive prolongation of the political crisis, with all the economic, social, and image costs, tends to flatten the electoral scores of the parties that made up the former governing coalition, with none exceeding the 20% threshold.

Mobilized voter preferences

Among respondents who state they are certain to participate in parliamentary elections (45% of the total sample), voting intentions shift. In this mobilized segment, AUR rises slightly to 40.2%, while PNL moves ahead of PSD into second place with 17.2%. PSD registers 16.4% among certain voters, dropping 2.3 percentage points compared to its general score. USR increases to 11.4% among decided participants. The Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) and SENS each register 4.8% support in this group, while Party of Young People (POT) takes 2.2% and SOS Romania records 1.8%.

Small parties and turnout distribution

In the general preference sample, UDMR scored 5.5%, while SENS reached 4.1%, up from 2.5% in May and moving closer to the 5% threshold. Both SOS Romania and POT recorded 2.7%, while independent candidates accounted for 1% and other parties took 0.3%. On a 1-to-10 scale measuring turnout certainty, 56.7% of respondents chose 10 ("surely yes"), while 17.8% chose 1 ("surely no"). Among remaining scores, 7.8% picked 5, 3.7% picked 7, 3.5% chose 8, 3.5% chose 9, 2.5% picked 6, 1.3% chose 2, 0.7% chose 3, 0.6% picked 4, and 1.8% were undecided. The survey surveyed 1,100 non-institutionalized adult respondents via computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) with a margin of error of plus or minus 3% at a 95% confidence level.