Romanian poll: AUR leads with 34% as Georgescu tops trust; early elections rejected

A new CURS poll published on 26 July shows the nationalist AUR party with 34% of voting intentions for parliamentary elections, ahead of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) at 23% and the National Liberal Party (PNL) at 21%. The poll, conducted by telephone among 1,108 adults between 14 and 24 July, carries a margin of error of +/-3% at a 95% confidence level.

Voting intentions

If parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, AUR would receive 34% of the votes among those who say they would turn out, an 11-percentage-point lead over the PSD. The PNL follows at 21%, the reformist USR at 9%, the ethnic Hungarian party UDMR at 4%, the far-right SOS România at 3%, and the two smaller parties PNRR-Piedone and Acţiunea Conservatoare each at 2%. The results confirm a stable advantage for AUR, while the contest for second place remains unchanged and very small parties illustrate the continuing fragmentation of the political scene.

Trust in political figures

No political leader enjoys the trust of a majority. Călin Georgescu leads with 33% saying they have a lot or quite a lot of trust in him. He is followed by President Nicuşor Dan (30%), George Simion (24%), and tied at 23% each are Ilie Bolojan and Sorin Grindeanu. Cristian Popescu Piedone records 18%, Claudiu Târziu 16%, Kelemen Hunor 14%, Diana Șoșoacă 11% and Dominic Fritz 10%. For Bolojan, 72% of respondents express little or very little trust (5% did not answer), while for Grindeanu the share is 73% with little trust and 4% no answer. Claudiu Târziu faces a visibility problem: 21% of those questioned say they do not know him.

The results show that the level of trust granted to the political class remains low, and negative assessments outnumber favourable opinions in all cases. At the same time, the low degree of notoriety for some political leaders, such as Claudiu Târziu, indicates that part of the political actors in the competition are still in a process of consolidating public visibility.

Institutional confidence and national mood

Romanians remain deeply sceptical about the country's direction: 80% believe Romania is heading in the wrong direction, while only 16% see a good direction. The Army tops the institutional trust list with 81% of respondents having a good or very good opinion of it. The Church follows with 79%, and Firefighters/SMURD with 66%. The Government and Parliament sit at the bottom, rated positively by only 19% and 20%, respectively. The judiciary, Constitutional Court and Presidency also elicit low confidence, reflecting a sharp contrast between institutions with intervention roles and those with administrative functions.

Early elections and presidential suspension rejected

Despite the weak confidence in political institutions, most Romanians oppose extraordinary measures. 58% are against calling early parliamentary elections, while 33% support such a move. Similarly, 57% reject the idea of suspending and removing the president, with 31% in favour.

Poll background

The survey was carried out by the Centre for Urban and Regional Sociology (CURS) using computer-assisted telephone interviews on a national probabilistic sample of 1,108 adults aged 18 and over. The fieldwork took place between 14 and 24 July. CURS was founded in 1996 and is wholly owned by former journalist Iosif Buble, who is married to PSD deputy Diana Tușa, according to HotNews.ro.